Wednesday 6 February 2019

Will Joe Biden run for president?

After Donald Trump's whizz-bang State of the Union address which, if nothing else, dramatically marked out his potential for continuing to divide the country rather than unify it as he urged, the focus is going to increasingly switch to Democratic candidates who could genuinely pose a threat to his wish to serve for another four years after 2020. With the Robert Mueller report on Russian collusion perhaps a month or so away, Trump can expect 2019 to be filled with dangerous pitfalls, giving his Democratic presidential rivals plenty of ammunition to attack him. So who is going to take the lead in the Democratic Party? Is Joe Biden finally going to put his name in the ring? If he does, I think it will force a lot of the potential candidates to opt out and leave it to Joe. But could this be a big mistake? Joe Biden is a good guy with a lot of support in the Democratic Party and as a former vice-president has the experience of the White House pressures. But in this new era of megaphone politics, Joe Biden's niceness could either be his greatest asset or his greatest weakness. Trump could devour him very quickly. Perhaps this is why Biden is taking so long to make up his mind. His family I would imagine will be warning him that taking on Trump could be a dangerous business. He would need to be seen as being as tough as Trump but without the divisive rhetoric. I suspect that Biden, if he does decide to run, will soon fall by the wayside. Another younger candidate will have to emerge into the frontline. It's difficult at this stage - too early - to see who that will be. Not Elizabeth Warren I suspect. Not Tulsi Gabbard, not Julian Castro, not Kirsten Gillibrand, and not many of the others who have either suggested, hinted at or announced their candidature. My money at this stage is on Kamala Harris who looks and sounds good and would be a wonderful opposite to Trump, or glamour boy Beto O'Rourke who has yet to make up his mind whether to run. He's a long-odds possible because he has obvious charisma. But I truly think a woman is going to outdo Trump and be the next president. It's time. Sorry Hillary, definitely not you.

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