Friday 22 February 2019

Will Trump and Kim Jong-un achieve anything in Hanoi?

The only person in Washington who seems to be optimistic about next week's second summit with Kim Jong-un is President Donald Trump. Unless he knows something which none of us or any of his most senior officials know, then Trmp is due for a big disapointment. I genuinely hope that the sceptics are wrong and Trump's unreal but apparently genuine liking for the North Korean leader will bear some fruit at the meeting in Hanoi. But it is difficult to be too hopeful because since the first summit in Singapore last June there has been very little progress, in fact pretty well nil progress towards the ultimate goal of denuclearisation. This inevitably raises the question: Is Kim Jong-un ready to get rid of his nuclear weapons or is he just tring to bamboozle Trump by flashing his smile in the hope that he can persuade the president to offer some nice juicy concessions, such as lifting some of the sanctions which have been hitting his country's economy. Trump has said all along that sanctions will not be lifted until AFTER all the North Korean nukes have gone. But no one who knows North Korea from way back believes Kim is ready to do that at any stage in the near future and probably never. Mike Pompeo, secretary of state, who started off being very bullish about the prospects for denuclearisation is now by all accounts gripped by reality and feels the Hanoi summit might just turn out to be window-dressing. This would be depressing indeed. Trump has obviously been warned not to give anything away and to make sure that Kim makes more than just general promises about denuclearisation. The truth is that North Korea is not as dangerous as it was because not that long ago Kim was threatening to launch long-range missiles at the US and was talking about setting off a hydrogen bomb in the atmosphere over the Pacific. There has been no such talk since the Singapore summit and I don't believe Kim will utter such warlike rhetoric in Trump's presence in Hanoi. So, taking that as a positive, what we need from Hanoi is some sort of timetable for denuclearisation, linked to sanctions-lifting and a formal ending of the war between North and South Korea. A timetable, signed by both Trump and Kim, will increase the chances of an eventual breakthrough that actually does lead to nuclear warheads being dismantled. It could happen, and despite the pessimism in Washington, especially from that old warhorse John Bolton, the national security adviser, Trump's "special" relationship with Kim might deliver the goods.

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