Thank God for Jim Mattis

I think while Jim Mattis remains as defence secretary in the Trump administration, sanity will prevail. There were a number of options placed before the president to punish Syria for the Douma chemical weapons attack, including a far more extensive range of targets, such as hitting Syrian regime military bases. But the more limited option highlighted and preferred by Mattis and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Joseph Dunford, was the one Trump eventually signed off on. It's normal practice for the president of the United States to be given a range of options prior to a planned military attack, and one of them will be the biggest stick, the all-embracing raid, like for example, the airstrikes on Serbia to force President Slobodan Milosevic to back down in Kosovo. This was a Nato decision but the US is the leading nation of the alliance. The decision surprised everyone, especially Milosevic. Bombs started falling all over Belgrade. He soon gave up! So Trump could have ordered widespread attacks on Damascus if he wantd to. But Mattis and Dunford had a number of arguments against this option. First, there was a huge danger that mass raids would bring the US into direct conflict with Russia. Then what? Second, the purpose of the strikes was to smack Assad, not eliminate him. That meant a pretty hefty strike on selected targets so that they were reduced to rubble, with a warning label attached which said, there's more to come if you so much as dare to use chemical weapons ever again. That warning went to Russia as well as to Damascus. Assad is a cocky sort of bloke and he may just think to himself that he'll wait a few more months and then have another go with chemical munitions to wipe out the last rebel positions. But if he does, then even Mattis and Dunford will not try and restrain Trump. Mosocw must know this. Putin, despite all his bravado, clearly made a decision not to interfere in the event of an American strike on Assad targets. The Russian air defences in Syria were switched on but never attempted to shoot down the Tomahawks and other missiles flying into Syrian air space. Putin didn't want a war with the US. So all that rhetoric about how Russia would shoot down US missiles if they came anywhere near Russian troops sounded dramatic but didn't amount to much. But Putin is no fool. He will have calculated that the US didn't want a war with Russia either, so any American strikes would therefore be strictly focused on Syrian targets where Russians were NOT based. And that's exactly what happened. So a pretty powerful message to Assad and Putin but no wider war, no casualties, just lots of bricks and mortar and, of course, chlorine and sarin nerve agent stocks. Trump is pleased because it was all shiny and clean and impeccably carried out using seriously impressive military high-tech, and Putin is probably smiling quietly because he can put it about through his propaganda machine that Trump was too afraid to take him on big-style. Provided Assad doesn't do anything stupid over the next few months, the civil war in Syria will settle back into its usual horrific daily artillery shelling, barrel bombs and human rights abuses.