Mosul and Raqqa

Inside the Pentagon and US Central Command in Tampa, Florida, the general view was that the best way to defeat Isis would be to attack Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria roughly at the same time. This would effectively drive them out of their two bastions and put Isis into limbo. Still dangerous and looking for some other sanctuary for their caliphate plans but definitely screwed for the time being. The trouble with this grand plan is that it ain't going to happen. The Mosul campaign is going reasonably well and there's a chance that the western part of the city could be liberated within the next four to six months, or even quicker if the Isis leadership escape en bloc for, guess where, Raqqa. A lot of them have gone already. The campaign to free Raqqa of the black flag militants is desperately slow, simply because there is no army with combat armour fighting Isis in or even close to the Syrian city. Instead, it's a hotchpotch of Arab and Kurdish fighters who have come together with training and financing by US, British and other coalition member nations. If the top Isis leadership all assemble in Raqqa and put all their efforts into hanging on to their so-called caliphate stronghold, the battle for Raqqa could take years. Unless, of course, Trump and/or the Russians and/or the Turks decide to send ground troops in to back them up. It could happen! But, either way, it has been impossible to synchronise the attack on Mosul with an attack on Raqqa. As important as it is to liberate Mosul it is vital that Raqqa is freed, too. But while the campaign against Raqqa has seen some significant success in nearby villages and towns, the "caliphate" capital itself remains totally in Isis hands and looks likely to be for a long time. Perhaps General Jim Mattis, Pentagon chief, will come up with a brilliant scheme to bring forward the fall of Raqqa. He has been given a set timetable by Trump to produce new ideas to defeat Isis. I predict that whatever Mattis recommends, it will mean more US troops deploying to Syria to add to the 500 already there.