Sunday 20 February 2022

It looks like the war has already started

No Russian troop crossings yet, no bombing from the air, no naval gunfire from the Black Sea, but the Putin war in Ukraine has effectively started, with a huge increase in artillery strikes and gunfire from Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The next step will be cyber warfare attacks followed by the first deployments over the border, probably from Belarus towards Kyiv. I can't see any turning back now. Putin, as Biden says, has made up his mind, not that there was any real doubt about his plan from the very beginning. And he thinks he has President Xi Zinping on his side. The Chinese leader is far too astute to come out and give his public backing for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. But he knows that at some time in the nearish future he, too, will be ordering an invasion - of Taiwan. And he will want Putin's tacit support for that which I am sure he will give if he hasn't already. The future of this world now looks like this: China and Russia linked together against the western world. A new and much more dangerous Cold War awaits.

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