Saturday 12 February 2022

Four days before the invasion?

Unless the CIA has got its intelligence wrong or has been duped by a Moscow-leaked "invasion plan", the mighty Russian military force sitting along Ukraine's borders will begin attacking its neighbour early Wednesday morning. That's four days left for what now must be considered meaningless and pointless diplomacy. By now Putin has heard the same message from the West 100 times, none of which has gone anywhere near meeting his demands for Nato to pull back its troops and weapons away from Russia's borders and inform Ukraine that it can never be a member of the alliance. So with no concessions from the US and the rest of Nato, Putin will go for broke and send his troops into Kyiv as swiftly as possible and line the streets with soldiers and seize the president's palace. All this stuff from Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, about the invasion starting with massive aerial bombing is surely nonsense. Why on earth would the Russians want to do that. They don't want to destroy Ukraine's capital, they want to control it and all they have to do is send the 30,000 troops they already have in Belarus across the border and into Kyiv at maximum speed and set up road blocks everywhere. The first sign of this manoeuvre will be a huge cyberstrike that will freeze Kyiv into a state of panic and confusion. I say again, why launch an aerial bombardment? This highly detailed war plan which the CIA allegedly acquired sounds a bit fishy to me. This is not going to be like the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 which started with massive bombing and shelling. Putin wants to hang onto Ukraine not bomb it to the Middle Ages. I hope all of the above is wrong, untrue and will never happen. But everyone who has seen this leaked war-plan intelligence is convinced beyond doubt that the invasion is so imminent that Wednesday has been pencilled in - nay printed - on their calendars. But one person for some reason seems to be not too concerned which is very strange. Blinken is on a trip to Fiji and elsewhere in the Pacific. What the hell is that all about?

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