Tuesday 15 February 2022

Putin is playing the game according to his plan

Vladimir Putin was asked at a press conference in Moscow today what Russia would be doing next. He replied with a smile: "According to the plan". With that he gave nothing away but revealed everything because ths is what it has all been about for the last few weeks. Putin has a well-structured, detailed plan which he is unveiling slowly as each day passes. Today it was the time to lift all the gloom and make a small gesture by the claimed withdrawal of some of the Russian troops who had supposedly completed their exercise and could go home. Well home for all of them was at garrisons not far from the Ukraine border, so it probably wasn't a big deal. Then after he had finished the press conference alongside the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz - the latest western leader to come begging to Moscow - there was a massive cyber strike on Kyiv, affecting the ministry of defence and two banks. Putin's plan? Steady, deadly pressure on a country Putin believes should be part of the Russian "empire". The West meanwhile grabs any sign of Putin backing off as a sign that pressure on Moscow has worked. But actuallly Putin is the master in the ring. He has western leaders where he wants them, confused and anxious about what he might do next. His plan to put Russia back on the geopolitical map, forcing the West to reconsider its whole security strategy for Europe, seems to be working nicely.

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