Sunday, 13 February 2022

What is Putin thinking right now?

What is Putin most worried about? Is it launching an invasion that will lead to death and destruction and a long-haul occupation of Ukraine? Is it about going to war without the approval or enthusiasm of the Russian people or even some generals it seems? Is it about how western sanctions will destroy Russia's economy and the financial assets of all his closest friends and internal allies? Is it about how the sanctions might target for the first time his own considerable fortune allegedly held under different names at home and overseas, not to mention the thought that his superyacht, if it's true he has one under a series of named companies, could be seized? Or is it how a war in Ukraine will change the face of future security in Europe and could lead to him being osctracised by all world leaders that matter with the possible exception of President Xi Zinping? Or that an invasion could end up in a war with Nato at some point in the future? It's a lot of things to think about. I think he wants to seize and occupy Kyiv and install a pro-Moscow regime. But Russia tried that in the 1980s, as did the West from 2001-2021, in Afghanistan and in both cases it proved to be disastrous. Putin is actually trapped by his own ambition and aggression. He knows a war in Ukraine could be the worst possible option for his future and for the future of Russia but he has gone so far it's too late to back down. The whole world is now waiting for his final decision.

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