Wednesday 2 February 2022

The Ukraine crisis is getting more alarming

Satellite images and intelligence analysis are showing that the build-up of Russian forces and weapons along the Ukrainian border have reached alarming proportions. The crisis is getting worse. So much so that President Biden has now ordered several thousand troops to deploy to Poland and Romania to boost defences in eastern Europe. He had put 8,500 troops on standby but now, as tensions and disagreements between Moscow and Washington increase daly, he has decided it's time to send some of the standby troops to the region, more as a signal to Vladimir Putin than as a fighting force. Indeed, the 3,000 troops being sent will have only a deterrent function. They are not being flown off to fight a war in Ukraine. Even Putin probably believes that although I suspect he will make a big fuss about it. The deployments are not significant in terms of numbers but Biden will be hoping that Putin gets the message: "Don't invade Ukraine and, above all, don't even think of ever venturing towards the Baltics, Poland and Romania." Any hint of such a catastrophic miscalculation on Putin's part and the US with Nato allies will be reinforcing the region with tens of thousands of troops plus heavy armour. The Pentagon has stressed that the troop deployments are to add reassurance to allies in the region but the main message is for the man in the Kremlin. It gives him something else to think about as he mulls over the pros and cons of ordering an invasion of Ukraine. The new satellite pics look very very disturbing!

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