Tuesday 22 February 2022

Putin is playing a clever divide and rule game

Instead of sending all 190,000 Russian troops into Ukraine in an all-out invasion to take over the whole country, Vladimir Putin has been far trickier. A full invasion would be easier for the West to react to because they could then pile on the toughest sanctions ever all in one go. But, no, Putin decided to do it more slowly, starting off with sending troops and tanks as "peacekeepers" into the two now-Moscow-recognised "independent states" of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. It wrong-footed the West. In Washington Biden and other officials didn't describe it as an invasion, although one National Security Council official did use the "I" word. But basically the sanctions being promised are related to the sending of troops to eastern Ukraine not because of a Putin-ordered invasion. We don't yet know how far Putin will go but unless a large chunk of the 190,000 troops along three sections of Ukraine's borders are sent home in the next few days, the invasion, including occupying the capital Kyiv, will still go ahead. But at Putin's timing. He will wait to see how the West settles down to his "peacekeeping" mission for a few weeks or longer before deploying more troops into other parts of Ukraine. This could go on for months. Putin is nothing if not an arch strategist. If he can continue to wrong-foot Biden and co, he will do so and will take great satisfaction in doing so and hope that he can create divisions between the US and the European members of the Nato alliance.

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