Sunday 6 February 2022

Russia accuses West of scaremongering about an invasion that won't happen

Either every Russian who has denied there is any intention of invading Ukraine is a liar or they don't know what's going on or they actually know for sure that what Putin really wants is to ratchet up the military invasion pressure just in order to get what he wants in terms of a changed European security architecture and a redrawing of the map. Whichever it is, the brinkmanship rhetoric is now getting seriously uncomfortable. Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, has been doing the rounds of the TV stations today to warn that a Russian invasion could happen any day, and that the US "in lockstep" with Europe is ready for instant retaliatory sanctions that could cripple Russia's economy. He also warned for good measure that if Putin's best pal, President Xi Zinping, so much as hints that Beijing will support and aid Putin in invading Ukraine, than watch out China for some sanctions too and worldwide condemnation. This is all building up to a massive disaster for Ukraine and for all of Europe if this sort of language drives Putin to gamble on a full-scale invasion. He might still do it whatever all these senior Russian chaps are saying, like the Russian deputy UN ambassador who was the one accusing the West of scaremongering. But of course they are all playing the same game, whatever happens in the next few weeks - invasion, minor incursion, massive cyber attack or backdow. Each side of the theoretical Iron Curtain will blame the other. The Americans will blame Putin for ignoring all the warnings and mounting a catastrophic empire-building invasion, and the Kremlin will accuse Washington of forcing them to snatch Ukraine because of the dastardly plot to undermine Putin's conviction that Ukraine belongs and always has belonged to Moscow. Right now both sides are scaremongering.

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