Saturday 5 February 2022

Ukraine is years away from being eligible for Nato membership

A form of words has to be magically plucked from the air which both confirms Ukraine has the absolute right to apply for Nato membership but has no chance of achieving it for so many years that it shouldn't be an issue to worry Moscow. The trouble is Nato is stuck with its decision from the Bucharest summit in 2008 when membership was dangled but not offered to the Kyiv government. So if this magic formula even hints that the Nato leadership is hoping to keep the membership topic off the realistic agenda for as long as possible, then Kyiv will get very angry and will, understandably, say to the alliance, "We've aleady waited nearly 14 years, what's the problem?" If Nato is going to continue with its open-door, anyone-can-join policy, then Ukraine can't be left waiting for much longer. But in the present climate, with Putin waving his big stick, any offer of membership with a date in the foreseeable future will be viewed in Moscow as dangerously provocative, while no offer of any kind for the next decade or so will be seen in Kyiv as a betrayal and a huge blow to their hopes of being part of the West's sphere of influence rather than Moscow's. Putin of course wants Nato membership for Ukraine to be banned for ever, never mind what was said in Bucharest in 2008. That's not going to happen but this is where the right formula of words needs to be found to keep both Moscow and Kyiv happy. Perhaps something like this: "We, the leaders of the Nato alliance confirm that we intend to maintain our open-door policy under which all nations who are eligible by their adherence to certain standards and democratic values can apply for membership of Nato which is a purely defensive organisation committed to peace and stability in the whole of Europe. Under this policy, former members of the Warsaw Pact decided by their own free will to seek to join the alliance and because of their commitment to democratic values and human rights and their contribution to Europe's security, have played a vital role in maintaining peace in the region. It is perfectly right and proper that other countries in Europe who believe they can play a similar role should have the opportunity to prove they, too, can be a valued member of the extended European family of nations. The criteria for membership are high and no country can expect to be accepted into the alliance unless they meet the exacting standards recquired. Ukraine has declared it wishes to be part of this open-door policy and wants to join the alliance at some time in the future when it succeeds in meeting those required standards. The Kyiv government knows that it is still a long way from achieving that goal. If other nations in the eastern region of Europe, such as Georgia and Moldova and even Russia itself would consider a similar path, alliance leaders would be delighted and honoured to provide every chance for them either to become full members of the organisation or to forge special partnership arrangements so that the whole of Europe is guided by the same commitment to peace and stability. Not just Europe but the whole world would benefit from such an arrangement." How would Putin respond to that sort of formula? I offer it to Nato free gratis.

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