Trump's big hitters

Trump's administration is beginning to find its feet. Not all the big personalities have survived and others are starting to make their presence felt. It's always fascinating to see how members of a new administration try or fail to make an impact. After four months, things are settling down, but the big hitters are beginning to emerge. Steve Bannon was all set to be the big chief as far as the White House is concerned, but he appears to have lost out in the personality fight with Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law. So Bannon is still quietly in the background but no longer the bull in the Trump china shop. He may be on his way out. Hardly surprising since Trump has reversed so many things he promised to do during the election campaign. Bannon must be wondering what the hell happened to his hero. He also knows that most people in the White House probably don't like him. Even Trump is less happy than he used to be having his rottweiler at his side. He was swiftly removed from his role on the principal committee of the National Security Council once Lieutenant-General HR McMaster took over as National Security Adviser. Now there's a big star in the White House. He's a tough cookie, McMaster. He took on the job because he was confident he could persuade Trump to let him get on with it without being hampered by the likes of Bannon breathing down his neck. And so it has turned out. So McMaster is the king. Whatever Trump does next in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, it will have the McMaster signature on it. McMaster is the master of counter-insurgency. He's a Petraeus devotee, so he knows his stuff. It's reported (probably with some accuracy) that he wants Trump to take more decisive action in all three countries, in order to wrap up America's involvement in the three campaigns. So more troops for Iraq and Syria - currently around 5,000 in the former and 500 in the latter - and more troops for Afghanistan - currently around 8,400. Bannon will go spare, he wants Trump to focus on the big domestic issues and not make the mistake, as he would see it, getting more immersed in overseas wars. But McMaster has the stronger voice. He will want to finish the job properly, against Isis in Iraq and Syria, and against the Taleban in Afghanistan. The problem with the Afghanistan issue is that there will be no end to the Taleban. They will always be there, they will always want more territory, they will always want to return to government. They are totally different from Isis. They have a political cause, and most of them are Afghan, although they still have links to al-Qaeda. So pouring more US troops into Afghanistan might help the Afghan security forces to keep the Taleban at bay but it will be a never-ending job. The Taleban are never going to go away. Isis, on the other hand, can be defeated, at least in Iraq and Syria, and there's a good argument for investing more military in both countries to drive the militants out. Never mind the Assad issue for the moment, focus on destroying Isis in Raqqa and elsewhere in Syria and helping the Iraqis with even greater intensity to liberate Mosul. So, McMaster is the man to do all that. Then lo and behold, Rex Tillerson has at last emerged from his shell. He's still not talking to the press much, but he has definitely made more of an impact in recent weeks. And that's good. A strong secretary of state is vital for any administration, but until now, that component has been missing - indeed ignored by Trump. Now Tillerson is turning up in all the right places and making sensible comments. Mad Dog Jim Mattis is also still doing well, despite the hiccup over the missing carrier! I like the sound of Mike Pompeo, the CIA director. He made a very sensible speech the other day at a think-tank. I hope he will be a strong voice, listened to by Trump. By contrast, Daniel Coats, the director of national intelligence, is so quiet I don't think I know what his voice sounds like. After the gruff and demanding James Clapper in that role in the Obama administration, it's a difficult act to follow, but surely Coats could say something! Which of these individuals is going to have the loudest voice for dealing with North Korea: Tillerson, McMaster, Mattis, Pompeo or Coats? I put my money on McMaster.