Sunday 9 April 2017

Trump dons superpower clothes

It's amazing what a few Tomahawk cruise missiles can do for a president's self-esteem and reputation around the world. Everyone has had to sit up and take notice. Trump's action has rewritten the front pages of every American newspaper and every national newspaper published from Beijing to Mogadishu, and, particularly in Moscow. Would Hillary Clinton have authorised an attack on Syria after the chemical weapons outrage? If she was president, I think she probably would have done. She always had a tougher, more hawkish attitude when she was secretary of state than the president she served. But no one had much idea whether Trump was going to be interested in getting involved in other people's wars. Now, everyone knows that Trump is prepared to go military when the circumstances demand it. Does that make the world a safer or more dangerous place? It's impossible to say at this stage. The launch of 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles will not resolve the crises in Syria. The chances are, they will make it worse, because Putin will be wanting to seek revenge against the man he thought was going to be his friend. Putin is not going to let go of Bashar Assad. He is his ally. He needs Assad in power to maintain a strong Russian presence in the Middle East. He has bases in Syria. He wants to keep them. Much will depend on Trump's new mood. Authorising Tomahawks, the easiest option for him, will have given him a taste of the sort of power which he will never have experienced as a top businessman. He will undoubtedly launch more Tomahawks if Assad dares to use chemical weapons again. He might even launch airstrikes to ground Syrian fighter aircraft. But the Washington component, always a little hesitant under President Obama, is now a definite feature in everyone's mind. Whether that will turn out to be a positive ingredient in Syria and elsewhere, it is difficult to predict. Putin must have had a nightmare few days. He is probably an angry man. And that's very unlikely to be good news for the rest of us.

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