How much longer can the Iranian economy survive?

Someone in the Trump administration must surely have worked out that at a certain point Iran's economy will be so dire because of the continuing US Navy blockade that the tough Tehran regime will be forced on its knees to beg for a deal with the US. That moment, it seems, hasn't come yet, but when will Iran's economy collapse totally without any income from the billion-dollar oil export business? No oil is leaving Iranian ports. Tankers are being barred from going anywhere, and those that try are being hit by missiles in their engine compartments. So, why isn't Tehran already begging for mercy? Will it take another month, another six months, another year? Donald Trump is not going to wait that long. He wants to escalate the pressure on Tehran by returning to bombing. But actually, with a little more patience in Washington, the Iranian economy will tank beyond repair and some sort of deal will be inevitable. With patience, the highly successful naval blockade cvuld do the trick. More bombing is unecessary and will only inflame the Middle East further. Patience is what TRump needs. But Trump is not a patient leader. He wants results quickly. Quick results is something Trump has singularly failed to achieve.

What will Trump do if he loses the midterms badly?

Donald Trump has been rallying throughout the country, trying to drum up support for the Republicans who need to be reelected on November 3. He claims the rallies have gone very well and he expects all the Republican candidates in the areas where he has visited to be returned to Congress. It's very possible he is going to be massively disappointed because the polls say the Democrats are going to sweep the board. I doubt the polls are that accurate. How the voting will go on the day is not necessarily what people tell opinion pollsters. Nevertheless, it's the midterm election that could ruin Trump's last two years in office. If the Republican party does do badly, as predicted, and lose both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the president is going to get angry. He will probably claim the election was rigged and take the matter to court. Or he could thumb his nose at the Democrats and do everything in his power to screw up their win, if they do win on November 3. One way of doing this is could be to make an executive decision to launch a new strike operation against Iran and not tell anyone in Congress, let alone seek their permission, as he should do. Perhaps people will be so scared at what he might do they will play safe and vote for the Republican party. No one really has a clue what Trump will do. But I doubt he will accept defeat quietly.

Trump still seems to be on the warpath

US Vice President JD Vance has offered to play chief negotiator with Iran to end the war and find a peace deal. It's a good move because the Tehran regime will believe that America is actually serious about finding a solution. But will it make any difference? By the sound of it, Donald Trump is raring to go to strike Iran again with a three-to-five day blitz. Benjamin Netanyahu looks most likely to form the next government coalition in Israel, so he has no doubt been on the phone to Trump to urge him on to, as he puts it, "finish the job". If Vance is going to get anywhere with negotiations he has got to persuade Tehran to offer concessions. One of them will have to be that the talks include discussions on Iran's nuclear programme. Not in six months time but now. The new regime in Tehran - worse than the one Trump and Netanyahu bumped off in February/March - doesn't sound like it is in the mood for any concessions. So Vance will have a tough time. But if he can get a settlement, against all the odds, he will burnish his chance of becoming president in the 2028 election. His main rival for the Republican nomination, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser, hasn't been involved in any of the top diplomatic negotiations, either for the war in Iran or the war in Ukraine. This could be Vance's big moment. Mind you, if he totally fails, then Trump will just order the bombers back into action.

Why did Putin agree to a ceasefire in Kherson region?

The ceasefire agreed for the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky in the Kherson province of Ukraine has now spread outwards. What is going on and does it mean Putin is thinking of offering more ceasefires in other part of Ukraine? This is all about politics of course. Melania Trump, the First Lady, was personally involved in brokering the ceasefire for Oleshky after it emerged the residents of the city were so desperate for food they were eating weeds. There has been no electricity, gas or water in the city for the last three years. The involvement of Melania Trump gave Putin a vital piece of public relations positivity. It looks like the appeal of the US president's wife was a golden opportunity for Putin to look "humanitarian". That word was first used when Putin agreed to release a US citizen from a Russian jail. Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, praised Putin for being humanitarian. Now, Putin has supposedly given two examples of his humanity. This is a cynical business. But if the ceasefire in Kherson lasts for any length of time and it creates any form of momentum for other deals like this, it might build into something more than localised ceasefires. This is the hope. While it is difficult to be remotely optimistic about the war in Ukraine coming to an end soon, this development in Kherson might offer a slight opening of the door towards an overall settlement.

Will Netanyahu lose the election?

When someone has been around for so long, it's difficult to imagine them not being in charge anymore. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister for nearly twenty years, has been the voice and face of Israel through a multitude of wars. He is Mr Security, even though he blundered mightily when Hamas raiders smashed their way across the Gaza border into northern Israel on October 7, 2023, and committed atrocities which cast doubt on the country's ability to defend itself. For that reason, Netanyahu should take the blame and should be ousted as prime minister. But the chances are he will hang on because even anti-Netanyahu voters will worry about giving the immense responsibility of protecting Israel from its many enemies to anyone else. Netanyahu also has the personal backing of Donald Trump which just might be a deciding factor. Whoever wins the most seats in the Knesset, it will still have to be a coalition, because in Israel's history, no leader has won outright, winning at least 61 of the 120 seats. So it will be a coalition, and even if Netanyahu loses out to a rival, such as Gadi Eisenkot, the former army chief of staff, he could still manage to form a coalition which keeps him in power. It's going to be close and we may not know the final result for some time. Whoever wins power, it won't help the Palestinians. Their future will remain unresolved whether Netanyahu wins or not.

Has diplomacy got any hope of stopping renewed war in Iran?

As the threats of renewed war increase from Washington and Tel Aviv, there's a huge effort from regional leaders to find a diplomatic formula. Could it work? Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have all sent their top guys to Tehran to see if there is any hope of concessions from the Iranian regime to stop war breaking out again. War would be grievously damaging for the whole Gulf region because of Tehran's declaration that if the US and Israel attack, the response will be much worse than it was during the first round of bombings. The evidence of that is still being evaluated. But masses of US military sites and energy plants in Gulf states were targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. Saudi Arabia, in particular, had and is having the toughest of times, having been hit on numerous occasions and now also by the Houthis from Yemen. Can these diplomatic envoys make any difference? Well, one of the required concessions is for Iran to stop enriching uranium and to hand over the 60 per cent-enriched uranium buried underground under the Natanz and Isfahan nuke sites. The boss of Iran's supreme national security council, the hard-looking Mohsen Rezaei, has made it clear that not one ounce of that enriched uranium will ever leave the territory of Iran. So, no sign of concession there. It doesn't necessarily mean diplomacy is dead, but unless something is worked out soon, Trump and Netanyahu are going to go back to war with all the unpredictable consequences for the whole region and the world.

What if Trump and Netanyahu both lose their country's elections?

Both the US and Israel are talking up the prospects of a return to military strikes on Iran. But what if Donald Trump's Republican party loses control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections on November 3? And what if Benjamin Netanyahu loses the election next week and is ousted as prime minister? Will there still be a mood for war or could this lead to a dramatic change in the way the Iran crisis is dealt with? Will it lead to a diplomatic settlement, with no more bombing? The chances are that whatever happens, Trump will go ahead with his war plans, irrespective of wether the Democrats are in control of the Houses of Congress. And Netanyahu, if he were to lose, would have a short period of grace before he has to hand over the government and in that time he could launch an attack on Iran. From the polls in Israel it's almost impossible to predict with any accuracy whether Netanyahu will survive as prime minister, but are Israeli voters prepared to go for a new leader who doesn't have the same rapoort with Israel's most powerful ally, the United States, and, in particular, Trump? So he might squeeze through, provided he can form a coalition. Trump could also keep the Senate which would mean a Democratic-controlled House would be thwarted at every turn. Nothing is clear-cut in politics and right now the elections in the US and Israel could go either way.