Sunday, 25 October 2026

What if Trump and Netanyahu both lose their country's elections?

Both the US and Israel are talking up the prospects of a return to military strikes on Iran. But what if Donald Trump's Republican party loses control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections on November 3? And what if Benjamin Netanyahu loses the election next week and is ousted as prime minister? Will there still be a mood for war or could this lead to a dramatic change in the way the Iran crisis is dealt with? Will it lead to a diplomatic settlement, with no more bombing? The chances are that whatever happens, Trump will go ahead with his war plans, irrespective of wether the Democrats are in control of the Houses of Congress. And Netanyahu, if he were to lose, would have a short period of grace before he has to hand over the government and in that time he could launch an attack on Iran. From the polls in Israel it's almost impossible to predict with any accuracy whether Netanyahu will survive as prime minister, but are Israeli voters prepared to go for a new leader who doesn't have the same rapoort with Israel's most powerful ally, the United States, and, in particular, Trump? So he might squeeze through, provided he can form a coalition. Trump could also keep the Senate which would mean a Democratic-controlled House would be thwarted at every turn. Nothing is clear-cut in politics and right now the elections in the US and Israel could go either way.

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