Lindsey Graham blows the trumpet for Ukraine

Sanator Lindsey Graham is a canny politician and knows what's what. So when he came back from another trip to Kyiv and claimed the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the one that has been imminent for weeks, is going to deliver a soccer punch to the Russians, you know he has had a good session with Zelensky and co and what he has been told sounds pretty impressive. The Russians have been waiting for the big blow to land and have been building defences like they were in World War One or Two. Which means the Ukrainians will need American-style obsstruction-busting bombs and heavy armoured vehicles. Do they have what they need? They seem confident that they do, judging by Graham's hints and indications. Let's hope so, because if this war is ever going to end or at least stop with some sort of reasonable arrangement, then the anticipated big blow will have to be so effective that the Russian defences will crumble. I'm not sure even with all the weapons provided by the West that Ukraine has sufficient firepower on land and in the air to overwhelm the Russian positions in the east and south. They don't have the F-16s yet so in the air they will have to continue to rely on old Soviet aircraft which are good but not superior to what the Russians have, and the Russians hav a helluva lot more combat aircraft available, about 1,000. Good luck to the Ukrainians but I don't think the Russians are done yet.

China man on the moon soon

China wants to have a man or men on the moon before 2030. And the US plans to have astronauts walking the surface of the moon in 2025. Heyho, it's the space race all over again. Back in the day it was the Soviets and the Americans trying to outdo each other, with the Soviets taking first bite with their Sputnik satellite that took everyone by surprise. Now it's all US versus China. There are people, like Elan Musk and Richard Branson, who have a fervent belief that one day the moon will become an alternative planet for the human race. And then later, on Mars. But I just don't see it. Giving up one's Victorian semi with roses round the front door for a glorified tent on the freezing moon somehow doesn't appeal. It would be like buying a holiday home in South Georgia. But when you are a superpower you have to think big and big means space. Space is already the new war domain and I guess it's not inconceivable that another planet could be colonised one of these days. But they won't get the average human desperate to join the queue. It's not as if life on the moon or Mars would be war-free. With the Americans and Chinese battling for the same territory up there, there is almost bound to be a war at some point. Better to stay down here and tend your roses.

Western leaders are talking more about defeating Russia

Within the Nato alliance there seems to be a growing view that the only way to end the war in Ukraine is for Russia to be defeated. If the world was a simple place where right and wrong were easily distinguishable and everyone played fair, then, yes, it would solve a lot of problems if Russia were defeated, Putin was humiliated, and we could all get back to our nice lives and not to have to continue sending billions of dollars of weapons to Kyiv. But the world is not like that. The world is cruel and power-mad, so if the ultimate goal in the West and in Kyiv is for total defeat of Russia, I fear the consequences. I'm not saying it's wrong, it's not wrong, it's the right thing to do, but it has to be thought through. What would Putin do if he faced overwhelming defeat? Fortunately I don't think we need to spell out whether he will go mad and go nuclear out of revenge. I think what will happen if Ukraine makes huge strides in its imminent territory-grabbing-back counter-offensive is that China will step in big time and bring all the parties together for a peace-deal summit. It's not in Beijing's interest for Russia/Putin to be defeated. Xi Zinping may not have come out in public support of Putin's invasion but he wants a strong and anti-West partner and he won't let Putin be crushed into defeat. And when China steps in, the West, including the US, will be secretly happy, or even openly happy, because the worst scenario is a for-ever war. There has to be a deal at some stage. General Mark Milley, US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said so a long time ago and he was right. It's the political leaders, not the military, who talk about victory and defeat. If the Ukrainian counter-offensive achieves big results, Zelensky can come to the table with a strong hand. That's the most realistic scenario.

Another reason why Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination

Donald Trump will end up with plenty of rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. So it will be a really tough fight? Well actually not at all and the reason is simple. None of the other candidates, whether it be Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence or Tom Scott or whoever is going to dare to come out and attack the former president with everything they have got. Because if they do, they will alienate the very people whom they will be trying their best to win over. In other words, the only way they are going to beat Trump is by being nice about him but at the same time try to offer an alternative way forward to make Trump loyalists begin to have doubts about a man who is not only 76 but also one of the most controversial politicians in US history. This is called trying to square the circle. An outright attack on Trump will put so many Republican voters off that it will be like committing political suicide. One way for the Trump challengers to make their case might be to ignore Trump altogether, not mention him, just focus on their own agenda and hope it's enough for the millions of supporters of The Donald to switch. But that would be like being in a room with the largest elephant on the planet and pretending it's not there. Another option might be to praise Trump for everything he has done and stands for but suggest that it would be a good idea to have a younger nominee to take on the octogenarian Joe Biden. But a lot of Republican voters with Trump as their favourite might think that's disrespectful. So every which way, the challenge for the Trump rivals is going to be very very difficult. Put a foot wrong, say the wrong thing, even hint that Trump is past it and the voters will wither away. For all these reasons, I repeat what I said before, Trump is going to win the nomination, way ahead of his rivals, and will probably beat Biden.

Salute to Henry Kissinger, 100 today

Henry Kissinger is possibly the most famous person on the planet. Never mind all the pop stars and rock stars, the popes and presidents and others on the so-called A List of celebrities. Kissinger has been around for 100 years and has more wisdom and knowledge in his head than most of the world's population put together. I met him twice, each time in a relatively intimate setting with a dozen or so other journalists sitting round a table in a special dining room in the posh part of London, and just listened to him answering our questions. He was a formidable presence and each occasion was unforgettable. There will be many commentators who will try to gainsay his reputation by pointing to his involvement in the decision to launch a massive bombing campaign against Cambodia in 1969/70 when 110,000 tons of bombs were dropped, causing mass casualties. But as a statesman and diplomat and supreme intellect he probably had more influence on the world than any other comparable figure in modern history. His opinions are sought still to this day by presidents and prime ministers. He is a unique figure and has an esteeemed place in history. May he have many more birthdays.

DeSantis says he might pardon the convicted January 6 riot participants

When a politician announces he or she is going to run for the White House they get all power-thoughtful and start making lists of what they might do on day one of being voted in as president. Ron DeSantis, literally only a day or so into his campaign after his somewhat twitchy Twitter performance and he is already musing at the prospect of pardoning the January 6 Capitol rioters. He can only do that of course if, first, he beats Donald Trump to the Republican nomination and, second, defeats Joe Biden. So it's all a bit premature but what is interesting is that even at this early stage he is thinking about pardoning people involved in one of the most climactic events in Washington since the British burnt down the White House and Congress on August 24, 1814. The pardoning would of course include Donald Trump who hasn't been convicted of anything related to the January 6 assault but is still being investigated. So on day one DeSantis marches into the White House, gets out his fountain pen and signs pardons for the lot. I wonder how that will play with voters when they try to make up their minds who they want to be the 47th president. I guess all those weird-looking guys with horns and tattoos will vote for him. For me, it's a bad move even to hint at pardoning people who tried to overturn democracy. But perhaps I'm old-fashioned.

How can the destruction of Bakhmut be seen as a victory for Moscow?

After pounding by artillery, rockets, cruise missiles, air-launched bombs and everything else in the Russian armoury, Bakhmut looks like Dresden after it was firebombed by the Allies in the Second World War. There is nothing left in Bakhmut for it to justify being called a city. Like Mariupol on the northern coast of the Sea of Azov which received similar treatment by the Russians last year, Bakhmut is a place of death and rubble. It will take billions and billions of dollars for both cities to be restored to their former glory. Who is going to do it? The Russians? No, not a hope in hell. They will remain, probably for years, as the legacy of Vladimir Putin's war. It almost doesn't matter that the Russian army is now supposedly taking over control of Bakhmut from the notoriously murderous Wagner Group of Russian convicts. There is nothing for them to control, the devastation is so great. My own experience of walking through a city destroyed by war was in the 1990s in Bosnia. The city of Mostar, or at least the eastern section of it where the Muslim population lived. After the artillery barrages launched by the Croatian forces there wasn't a building left which had not either been reduced to rubble or made structurally, dangerously unsound. When a city is destroyed like that, what's left is an eery silence. I shall never forget it. So the Russian troops will be walking around the ruins of Bakhmut and, hopefully, wondering what the point of it all had been. Putin thinks it was a victory. It was never that.