Monday, 31 August 2026
US and Iran strike back
A month of relative quiet and now it's back to tit-for-tat strikes. Clearly US Central Command got wind of a plot by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, so preemptive action was taken and the suspected site for the minelaying was blasted. Then Iran retaliated with strikes on Jordan and the UAE. This is the type of war which can go on for ever. It also shows that the IRGC is going to continue threatening the strait but the military leaders will have learned one lesson. Whenever they plan an attack, the US gets to hear of it. Nothing can be secret. It means it's almost impossible to plan any sort of attack without the US listening in. That should be a considerable deterrent. Yet the IRGC goes ahead with its plans anyway. This demonstrates, not for the first time, that the IRGC is never going to give up, whatever damage is done to Iran's economy through the naval blockade and sanctions. What is perhaps strange is that the US has not focused all its military action on the IRGC itself. I have no idea how many IRGC personnel have been killed in the bombing raids. But it's clear this military organisation feels it can just carry on threatening the strait because it remains and will always remain the best leverage it has against the US.
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