Tuesday, 16 June 2026

The US/Iran memorandum of understanding is paper-thin

First of all, the MoU between Washington nand Tehran was said to be two pages. Now, apparently, it's only a page and a half. Probably the most accurate description of the MoU which is supposed to end the war between the US/Israel and Iran has been provided by the US vice president, JD Vance. He said the clauses in the MoU were all general. The specifica details will have to be bashed out in the next 60 days. Actually, I doubt all the details will be sorted in juty 60 days. The nuclear issue alone took two years to resolve under the previous agrement during the Obama administration, and the wording was immensely complicated. This sort of deal is not going to be negotiated by a couple of Trump friends. It will need the US's finest nuclear brains. So the MoU to be signed in Switzerland by JD Vance on Friday is so paper-thin that, on reading, it might seems as if it is too broad-brush to have any true meaning. However, if the signing goes ahead as planned, then it's better than a resumption of war. Generalities allow for too many interpretations but there will still be some form of broad agreement on the following matters: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the US naval blockade and an agreement on both sides to discuss all the detail over the next 60 days. Key to this will be the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is still saying it will charge administrative fees - ie tolls under a different name. Trump is not going to allow this. But you can bet there is going to be some form of language eventually which will make the Strait of Hormuz less free than it has always been. Tehran enjoyed having the power to close the strait and then impose payments on shipping companies and the regime is unlikely ever to agree to give up that entitlement unless it gets something pretty massive in return, like a lifting of ALL international sanctions over a short period. So far, nearly all commentators have rubbished the deal before it has even been made public. I suspect, and hope, that there will be enough meat in the few paragraphs to lay the foundations for a better relationship between the US and Tehran, and a settlement that can get the global economy back working properly again.

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