Putin's summer offensive in Ukraine has begun

While Donald Trump seeths with frustration over Putin's failure to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine, and Europe ponders whether it will be on its own supporting Kyiv, the Russian leader is just getting on with the task of mounting a new offensive. About 50,000 Russian troops are gathered on the northern border of Ukraine and seem poised to try and seize control of the whole of the Donetsk province in eastern Ukraine. They may not succeed because the Ukrainian forces are wise to what he is up to and will no doubt do their best to target the incoming troops. But what the summer offensive tells us more than anything is that Putin is not remotely interested in a ceasefire or reaching a peace settlement and that at least for the next few months he will order his troops to grab as much territory as possible. The general view is that this is his way of gaining leverage if and when settlement talks begin. But I don't think this is the case any more. I think Putin has decided that he no longer has to fear what Trump will do, if he ever did, and that he's prepared to screw over Trump and pursue his war aims whatever the US president does or says. Trump has claimed he doesn't understand what the crazy Putin is doing, especially after their nice two-hour chat on the phone which gave Trump some hope that his personal relationship with the Moscow leader would be critical in ending the war. But while Putin is obviously prepared to play along with Trump, he is not really listening. The gathering of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian northern border shows he is getting a second wind. He is ready for a long war.