Monday, 11 November 2024

Russian death toll in Ukraine could be Zelensky's strongest leverage

It is always claimed that Vladimir Putin cares not a fig for the deaths and injuries among his troops in Ukraine provided he gets the land he wants and provided he causes maximum economic angst for the US and Europe. That has generally seemed to be the case because as the death toll rose, he just mobilised more troops or sent in barely-trained recruits to fill the gaps. But Britain's top military chief has now claimed that Russia is close to suffering 700,000 casualties - dead and wounded - and that last month, on average, 1,500 Russian soldiers were killed or injured every single day. That is a staggering statistic. And what's more, in return, the Russian occupying troops managed only the most limited of geographical gains on the battlefield. Will there come a point when Putin realises this level of casualties cannot continue for much longer? And will that then be the moment when Zelensky can use the casualty leverage to put pressure on Putin to stop the fighting and reach a deal which is reasonably favourable to Kyiv? The answer is that it will only force Putin to offer concessions if there is a domestic outcry about the rising deaths. So far, there has been no sign of it because Putin has cleverly told the Russian people that the invasion of Ukraine was all about protecting Russia from its enemies in the West and that it has to be a fight to the death to preserve Russia's own sovereignty. The Russian people may believe this right now but with all the talk of a possible deal when Donald Trump comes to power, will that belief in Putin remain as strong as ever? I suspect that that moment won't be reached until it is reported or claimed that Russia has lost one million men. At the current rate of 1,500 a day dead and wounded, that figure could be reached by the middle of next year.

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