Could Putin and Zelensky ever make a deal?

Warring parties often strike deals. Exchanges of prisoners of war, brief cessations of operations to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid, covert talks between respective intelligence services to map out possible ways forward, and tentative peace feelers. Since President Putin ordered thousands of troops across the border into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there have been no peace negotiations and no sign of meaningful compromise from either Moscow or Kyiv. And yet, after nearly three years of horrendous casualties and infrastructure destruction in Ukraine, preliminary talks are underway, according to the Financial Times, for a deal in which both sides would agree to stop or reduce attacks on energy installations. While it might seem a bizarre development, it’s now in Moscow’s interest as much as in Kyiv’s to end the continuous targeting of power plants. Ukraine has developed long-range attack drones which have effectively struck targets deep inside Russia, including oil refineries. From the beginning, Russian airstrikes have hit Ukraine’s power networks, knocking out about nine gigawatts of the country’s energy infrastructure. During the summer months, Russia bombed and destroyed half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said it was “the power equivalent of three Baltic nations”. With winter approaching, if that level of destruction continued, Ukraine’s population would inevitably face freezing months with daily power blackouts. Talks, sponsored and mediated by Qatar, took place in August but any progress towards some form of deal was scuppered when Ukrainian forces invaded the Kursk region in western Russia and seized a wide area of territory. Moscow pulled the plug on the talks. However, the FT quoted a diplomatic source as saying there were “very early talks” about restarting discussions on ending strikes on energy facilities. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, was dismissive of the report, describing it as fake news. But Peskov has a habit of protesting too much. Something is going on. In similar fashion, the so-called grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, now aborted, was constructed through the intervention of Turkey and the United Nations. It was a deal which seemed unlikely at the time, allowing Ukraine to continue exporting its grain stocks by cargo ship along a 357-mile corridor across the Black Sea to the Bosphorus Strait. Moscow promised to provide safe passage. The deal which enabled Ukraine to return to near pre-war grain export levels of around 6.5 million tonnes a month, operated from 22 July 2022 to 17 July 2023. Prior to the agreement, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its deliberate targeting of the country’s grain stores, spiked global food prices and led to warnings of famine in Africa. Russia also temporarily halted its grain exports, and the combination raised fears of a world food crisis. Turkey which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea, hosted the talks that resolved the crisis. Since Russia scrapped the deal, Ukraine has cleverly adapted its export routes to avoid Russian attacks. Whether the reported preliminary talks on an energy infrastructure deal, originally initiated by the Russian and Ukrainian intelligence services, come to fruition, it does raise the question of whether back--channel negotiations might lead to something even more hopeful, such as ideas for bringing the war to an end. However, that would seem to be over-optimistic at present. Putin is going to be in no mood to do any deals with Ukraine’s President Zelensky while Ukrainian troops remain as an occupying force in Kursk. Indeed, thanks to his friend Kim Jong-un, several thousand North Korean troops are even now training in Russia to join the Russian counter-offensive units attempting to liberate the region. In the meantime, the European Union is doing its best to provide Ukraine with some of the energy supplies it requires to survive the winte. The current plan is for the EU to restore 2.5 gigawatts of energy capacity which is the equivalent of around 15 per cent of the country’s needs. However, about 80 per cent of Ukraine’s thermal plants (coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear) have been destroyed and a third of hydroelectric power is also out. So, even with the EU’s help, power supply is going to be restricted throughout the winter. Russia, too, has suffered from attacks on its energy infrastructure. Last month Ukrainian drone attacks hit the Moscow oil refinery and the Konakovo power station in the Tver Oblast which is one of the largest energy producers in central Russia. Kyiv has made it clear it intends to continue with such attacks with the aim of forcing Moscow to the negotiating table. The reported Qatar--sponsored talks could be the best hope for both Kyiv and Moscow to call a halt to this type of targeting. Then we will see if it leads to something more significant.