What will happen when Ukrainian troops withdraw from Russia?

Nearly two weeks into its audacious incursion into western Russia, Ukraine faces a tactical conundrum: how long to stay, when to withdraw and how to do so safely while retaining long-term strategic advantage? Crossing the border on August 6 and taking the Kursk and Moscow leadership by surprise was relatively straightforward. Under the cover of a heavily forested border area which was inadequately guarded by inexperienced, lightly-armed frontier forces, Ukraine’s toughest combat units met with little resistance. However, with Moscow now on full alert after a slow start, how challenging would it be for an estimated 10,000 Ukrainian troops and hundreds of vehicles to simply turn round and go back over the border? Kyiv has declared it has no wish permanently to occupy seized Russian territory but hopes the arrival of thousands of well-equipped soldiers trained in western-style combined-arms skills will force Moscow to switch its focus away from eastern Ukraine and, eventually, persuade President Putin to consider negotiating an end to the war. However, if Putin makes no concessions and refuses to countenance negotiations, except on his terms, Kyiv will have little alternative but to stay in Kursk and advance further to ratchet up the pressure on Moscow. In anticipation of this scenario, Ukraine has set up a “military commandant’s office” in occupied Kursk as a demonstration of the new battlefield frontline confronting Moscow. Despite the military successes, not everything has gone Ukraine’s way. Russian forces have continued to advance in eastern Ukraine, threatening to seize new territory, notably in the strategic Povrovsk district within Donetsk Oblast. At some point, the combat-proven Ukrainian units now in Kursk may be needed back home or risk leaving vulnerable gaps in eastern Ukraine for Russian troops to exploit. Kyiv will want to hold onto the seized Russian territory for as long as possible, as a bargaining chip with Moscow, but there will come a moment, especially if Putin gets round to launching a large-scale counter-attack on Ukraine’s occupying forces in Kursk, when Kyiv’s cross-border incursion could start to falter. As Russia found to its cost when it launched the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, reliable logistical back-up (fuel, food, ammunition, spare parts) makes the difference between military success and failure. So far, the Ukrainian forces in Kursk have been well supplied. But what happens if Russian bombers and artillery start to pound the supply lines? Withdrawing under fire or without a pre-planned strategy could prove fatal for Kyiv. History is littered with disastrous retreats, such as the panic withdrawal of Iraqi troops from Kuwait City in the 1991 Gulf war when convoys of vehicles heading up the highway to Mutla Ridge close to the Iraq border were obliterated in an ambush by US Abrams tanks and Apache attack helicopters. However, the Ukrainian troops in Kursk have four distinct advantages: they plan to withdraw only when the Kyiv leadership decides it is the most opportune time, politically and strategically; they have the firepower, including air-defence weapons, to protect themselves, as well as thickly forested ground to provide cover; and they have with them hundreds of Russian conscript prisoners. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War says the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk and the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine “are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war”. However, even if the Ukrainian troops successfully withdraw when Kyiv gives the order, Moscow has been put on notice that the 720-mile border it shares with Ukraine in the western regions of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk are never again going to be safe from attack. Ukraine’s dramatic incursion has proved that.