Renewed hopes for peace in Afghanistan? I doubt it

Every now and again over the last 17 years, hopes are raised of a peace settlement in Afghanistan. The argument goes that even the Taliban are tired of war and want to do a deal under which they will be represented in government and the fighting stops. We're having just such a moment right now. Under the Trump strategy the idea has been to bomb the Taliban to the negotiating table. Not exactly a new idea. In fact that has been the only idea in the last 17 years. But under Obama the will to continue the whole war thing in Afghanistan became muddled. No one really knew how to bring it to an end, so Obama started calling for a timetable for US troop withdrawal. That was a disaster because it gave the Taliban hope that within a certain timeframe all those pesky foreigners would leave and they could get on with seizing back Kabul. Then Trump turned up and ordered a few thousand more troops back into Afghanistan to help wage war rather than sit well back from the frontline with instruction manuals for the poor Afghan security forces who have lost literally thousands of troops on the battlefield. On top of that Trump sent in more bombers and gave commanders the authority to strike at all opponents - Taliban, Isis and al-Qaeda. The dropping of munitions, as a result, has been at the highest level for several years. So, would this tougher, more bloodthirsty approach drive the Taliban to the peace table? Suddenly the answer seemed to be, maybe possibly. First of all there was that historic event when the fighting stopped for the end of Ramadan, and Taliban and Afghan military got together and hugged and played football. But that was a mirage in a desert. The ceasefire lasted three days, then wham bam, it was back to murder and slaughter. Nevertheless, the peace notion has come up again. It has emerged that US officials met a week or so ago with Taliban "officials" in Qatar to talk peace. The mood had swung back towards ending the war. Or so it seemed. There is a big effort now going on to consolidate this whisper of peace and bring this horrific war to a close. But first of all, who are these Taliban "officials"? We've been here before. So-called officials have turned out to be like seventh cousins twice removed from the real bad guys. In other words, no real clout and certainly not representing the top league of the Taliban. We don't know whose these Taliban were, or even if they were genuine Taliban just off the battlefield and smelling of cordite or minor individuals who live in Qatar and write pen letters to the Taliban commanders on the off chance they might get a reply. You detect a hint of scepticism here. I hope I'm wrong, it would be a great historic event if the war or wars in Afghanistan could finally come to an end. But I truly cannot believe that the real Taliban are remotely interested in a peaceful existence, let alone doing a deal with the hated Kabul government and especially not coming to any sort of agreement with the Americans! I simply don't believe the Taliban are interested. They are playing a game. They want the Americans and others out of their country. Then and only then will they start to think of negotiations, but with Kabul, not Washington.