Did Trumpism influence Kim Jong-un?

It's difficult to say if Trump's shouting, insulting, warning rhetoric aimed at Kim Jong-un played any part in finally persuading the North Korean leader to back down a touch. The South Korean president, Moon, believes it did, and he thanked the US president for taking such a tough line on Pyongyang. Well I can understand why he praised Trump. It makes good diplomatic sense to be warm and cosy towards the one nation on earth which is going to protect you in time of imminent war. But what does Kim Jong-un believe? Does he privately admit to himself that the dire warnings of destruction from the White House were the final straw that drove him towards the Olympic ski slopes, as it were? Of course he doesn't. His plan all along, I suspect, was to shout as loudly as Trump while he got on with his nuclear and ballistic missile testing and then, just when Trump was probably starting to think more seriously about the military option, he pops up with an olive stick (not branch, yet), and offers an Olympic Games concession. Then, as was totally predictable, all the world's clever people start saying, "Hey look at this, it could be the first sign of a new era, there are bound to be other concessionary moves and the threat of war is off." Actually it probably means no such thing. Kim is just playing a very calculated and very smart game. He has taken one tiny step back for mankind but there are plenty of giant steps forward he can make in the future, such as carrying out a mighty nuclear test shortly after his Olympic skiing team comes 34th. Would Trump declare instant war as a result, so soon after the glow of universal friendship arising from the Winter Olympics? No, I don't think so. Kim might wait a bit longer, giving hope that at last he has given up or at least suspended his nuclear and missile programme. But I'm afraid the chances of that happening are at odds of about a trillion to one against. Kim's very existence is based on his need and desire to have a credible nuclear deterrent - just like in the good old Cold War days. And to have a credible deterrent - credible, above all, in the eyes of the United States government - he needs to carry on testing, because right now the considered opinion in Washington, based on all the intelligence available, is that North Korea is not quite there yet. So after the fun and games of the Winter Olympics, with photographs of North Korean skiers drinking hot chocolate and beaming at their South Korean brothers-in-ski-boots, Kim will return to the business of proving to the world that, if pressed, he could annihilate a US West Coast city or even a city anywhere in America. So I'm sorry to say that Trump's robust tweeting has probably played no part in Kim's strategic thinking except in so much as it has helped him to put a foot into the door of the previously rock-solid alliance between Washington and Seoul. The chatting at Panmunjom on Tuesday and the whisper of future talks on military matters has slightly taken the wind out of Trump's sails. Of course, Trump doesn't want war and he has welcomed the talks and raised, not for the first time, the possibility of a telephone call with Kim. But none of this will stop Kim from his pursuit of his ultimate goal. Trump must know that. Moon must know that. But right now we're in the cosying-up period which sounds good on paper but is filled with potential treachery, lies, deceipt and danger.