Trump's Afghanistan problem

Every instinct in Trump's head will warn him against sending more US troops to Afghanistan. That place is a bottomless pit of disaster. There is no way anyone is ever going to defeat the Taliban - ie remove them from the Earth. They will always be around. They're Afghans after all, most of them. But what does he do when General Jim Mattis, trusted adviser on military matters, says to him this week: "Look, Mr President, I know you don't want to get further involved in Afghanistan but the job isn't finished. We've had a go for 16 years but the Taliban are still strong, they've taken over most of Helmand province, they're back in all their old haunts, they're killing Afghan soldiers at a phenominal rate, they show no signs of wanting to negotiate peace, and we only have 8,400 troops there to assist them. We need to send more, at least 3,000, and may be more." The trouble with this argument is that an extra 3,000 American troops will do almost nothing to change the dire situation in Afghanistan. I know for a fact that a very senior former military man close to Trump advised him that the only way to make a difference now is to return to Afghanistan all those "enabling" troops - ie support personnel - who were removed by Obama. That means logistics guys, intelligence specialists, Apache attack helicopter crews, communications units etc etc. If Trump were to agree to that, it would mean sending perhaps 15,000 to 20,000 more troops back into the cauldron. It makes most military sense, but I doubt Trump will buy it. He will probably say, what's the point? We tried all that before and it didn't work. Or at least it worked while they were all there but as soon as they were withdrawn, it was back to square one. Why? Because the Afghan national security forces are basically an infantry army. They just don't have the huge back-up which was supplied by the Americans when they were there in huge numbers. So Trump will probably say, ok let's send 3,000 more troops provided you can guarantee they will really make a difference. But they won't. The US sent 300 more Marines to Helmand to boost the Afghan army there. But they are not there as combat troops and there's not much they can do to win back Helmand from the Taliban who have seized control of all the areas once fought over at huge casualty cost by the Brits and Americans way back. I'm not suggesting we, the West, abandons Afghanistan. But the Taliban are not going to be forced to the negotiating table if the Americans send just another 3,000 troops, none of whom will be combat-authorised. Ok, if the Brits and Dutch and French and Germans etc each send another 1,000, the numbers could mount up. But that is NOT going to happen. There are elections going on and no European leader wants to put Afghanistan at the top of any must-do list. The Taliban just have to wait to get what they want. They have time and patience and the will. We, us, the West, we have other things to worry about, eg North Korea, Iran, Russia, China. If Trump does decide to go for the 3,000 extra, the war will go on without any real pressure on the Taliban to seek peace. If he were to send 20,000, that would make a big difference but it will probably mean America's military involvement in Afghanistan will continue for the whole of Trump's four-year term and probably into his second four-year term if he wins again. I doubt he would consider that a good idea. So the stalemate in Afghanistan will continue. It is a shocking example of how military might does not and cannot win in a country like Afghanistan where the insurgents are part of the landscape and, incidentally, while the Taliban leaders can stay safe in their two sanctuaries in Pakistan, assisted I am sure by the Pakistani military and intelligence apparatus. Now there is something you can do, President Trump. Clear out the Taliban hierarchy from Quetta and Miramshar, close to the Afghan border. Ok, you can't drop another of those mother of all bombs in these two places, but you can give an ultimatum to the Pakistani government: drive these b******* out of there, or Pakistan is off the partner list for good.