Friday 23 December 2022

Will the charges against Trump stick?

After a long inquiry, the January 6 committee of the House of Representatives has recommended to the Justice Department that Donald Trump should be charged with criminal offences, including fomenting an insurrection and conspiring to subvert the result of the 2020 presidential election. The committee which is bipartisan believes there is sufficient evidence for the former president of the United States to be charged. It would be the first time in the history of the US. I haven't read every word of the massive report by the committee but I really don't think the lawyers in the Justice Department will decide there is a prima facie case against Trump. Not because he is totally innocent, not because of what he said or didn't say prior to the assault on the Capitol on January 6, but because of the sheer magnitude of the thought of going to Trump's home and arresting him and formally charging him with rebelling against the constitution of the United States. It would be such a huge moment in the country's history that any Justice Department in whatever administration is going to hesitate before taking such a step. The "evidence" produced by the January 6 committee would have to be so strong and so unequivocal that there would be an absolute guarantee of a successful conviction. But there can never be a guarantee of conviction, and it would surely be almost as damaging for the country for Trump to be charged and acquitted than for Trump to be charged and sent to jail. So the lawyers of the Justice Department have a terrible decision to make. If they agree to the proposed charges, where will this leave the country, and if they say there is insufficient evidence to charge Trump, will that give a new lease of life for a man who wants to be president again in 2024? This is never going to be a strictly legal decision. It's going to be heavily mixed with all the political consequences. It's far more likely, in my view, that Trump wll be charged with other offences altogether, such as unlawfully removing classified documents to his home in Florida. That one might well stick, but if found guilty, he will not go to jail. So less of a big deal, just embarrassing for Trump and it might put paid to his presidential ambitions.

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