Thursday 22 December 2022

How will Putin view Zelensky's visit to Washington?

After a day of Winston Churchill speeches and adulation of the Man of the Year, President Volodymyr Zelensky, during his heavily pre-leaked trip to Washington, one has to ask the question: what will President Putin be thinking about the visit? Well, he will see it as further evidence of the US taking on Russia and it will probably embolden him to pursue his war in neighbouring Ukraine with even greater intensity just so that he can make life uncomfortable not just for the Ukrainian people but for President Biden. The House of Representatives changes hands next month, with the Republicans taking over majority control, and already the party's most senior Congressional figures have warned about the need to examine carefully the money and arms going to the Kyiv government. Putin will want to play on that, and the Zelensky visit to Washington will reawaken Putin's determination to see his war through to victory, whatever that might mean, however long it takes. Biden repeated to Zelensky that the US and Nato allies would support Ukraine, also for as long as it takes. But there will come a breaking point and I fear that it might be the western alliance and not Putin who blinks first. Putin doesn't care about the costs to Russia's economy and the cost in terms of casualties to Russian forces. All he cares about is achieving his objectives. He has a valiant and courageous opponent in Zelensky but without 100 per cent backing from the West, the Ukrainian leader will be fighting in the dark. He is already fighting in the dark. Zelensky said he was not appealing for charity, he was appealing for help to save global security. He is right. But whoever thought when the Russians invaded on February 24 that the safety of the world would be resting in the hands of a former comedian/turned brilliant war leader? The visit to Washington cemented that reality, and Putin will be under no illusions that he is stepping closer and closer to a much wider conventional war. Unless there is a peace settlement within the next six to nine months I can envisage direct conflict between Russia and Nato.

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