Thursday, 15 December 2022

Does Putin believe he's winning?

Is it possible that Vladimir Putin, ex-KGB lieutenant-colonel and thus steeped in the lying business, actually believes his own propaganda and thinks he is winning in Ukraine? Or is he perhaps being fed wildly over-optimistic intelligence reports from the front about how Russian troops are holding the line and continuing to threaten and intimidate Ukrainians to such an extent that it's as good as saying Putin has won a famous victory. I can't believe Putin is that gullible. I'm sure he dismisses whatever he reads in foreign newspapers - if he gets the Washington, London and Paris newspaper cuttings - and whatever he picks up from the BBC or CNN or Fox News. I am sure he rejects any western journalism as fake news. But can he really think his strategy in Ukraine is win win win? Surely not. He must spend much of his time in the Kremlin or his dacha outside Moscow in a state of smouldering anger, blaming everyone else for all the failings. And yet, as I have written before, he does look pleased with himself, so some of the propaganda he and his cohorts shovel out every day has stuck with him and overall the failings have been balanced by the reports he is getting which show much of Ukraine is being obliterated. That he really does enjoy. But there is a difference between enjoying other people's misfortunes and achieving victory. By now, nearly ten months after his forces invaded Ukraine, Putin must surely be getting impatient - just a little bit. If true, the question is what will he try next to bring about some sort of conclusion? He won't go nuclear, that I feel sure about. But could he do something outrageous to spur things on? If he has something up his sleeve I can't imagine it will make much difference because Ukraine is never going to give up whatever Putin tries. Does he know that or does he believe Kyiv will one day soon plead for mercy?

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