Friday 16 December 2022

Putin could be planning a push to seize Kyiv in the New Year

All the intelligence talk in the US and Ukraine is that Putin is planning a big offensive in January or February, using 200,000 mobilised reservists to try and seize Kyiv. Well, they failed dismally the first time they tried and were beaten back mercilessly by the Ukrainian forces equipped with anti-tank missiles and Turkish-made-and-supplied Bayrakter TB2 armed drones. So could they succeed this time? The Ukrainians will be well armed to deal with a second push to seize the capital but there is a big difference now. The Ukrainian people and their courageous forces have been battered non-stop by Putin's ballistic-missile and cruise-missile attacks aimed at destroying the country's power supplies. They are tired and cold. Will they have the mental and physical drive to take on a big Russian offensive to take the capital? This is what Putin wll be counting on, sending in fresh troops against an exhausted Ukrainian defensive force. This is where the US-led Nato alliance must play a big role, supplying, urgently, a new wave of accurate and longer-range weapons that will force the Russians to retreat. If this happens then I think there is a good chance the Ukrainians will be able to beat back the Russians for a second time. Then, and perhaps only then, Putin will realise he will never be able to conquer Kyiv and seek a settlement.

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