Monday, 26 December 2022
If the US had said no to Ukraine Nato membership, would this have stopped Moscow?
The US and the rest of Nato stipulated a long time ago that there would always be an open-door policy for membership of the alliance. Anyone could join - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine.....From that moment onwards there was going to be trouble with Moscow. And of course so it has proven. Initially Russia "joked" that it mght join Nato but didn't mean it. Belarus as far as I know has never indicated any desire to join. But Ukraine was mighty keen from the start, in fact pretty much as soon as the nation had removed the Soviet shackles from its sovereignty, Kiev then, Kyiv now,looked westwards and began to dream of joining Nato and the European Union. Leap forwards nearly two decades and we have a full-scale conventional (so far) war in Europe involving the whole of the alliance, Ukraine and Russia. Could that have been avoided if the US and Nato had stated unequivocally that the open-door policy was being dropped and countries bordering Russia would not be allowed to join because of the perceived threat it would pose to the Kremlin. In other words, in the interests of world peace and good relations with Russia, a declining superpower but with a huge stock of nuclear weapons, the Nato alliance could have expanded so far but no further. It probably made sense then even when Moscow was more positively inclined towards the West but certainly makes sense now in this dangerous era we have entered. But no one thought strategically all those years ago. So relieved and excited was the westen alliance that it had effectively defeated Russian communism and the Soviet Union without firing a shot that they felt it to be their duty to convert all former members of the Warsaw Pact into democracy-loving kingdoms and to be brought into the same liberal-minded club. It was a gesture that couldn't be turned down by nations which had struggled under the Kremlin dictatorship. Everyone wanted to join Nato. No one, and I mean no one in leadership positions thought properly about the consequences of this freedom-loving jamboree. So everyone queued up to join and once they were accepted they received massive economic and military aid to become fully paid-up members of the defensive Nato alliance. Moscow watched in bewilderment, anger and trepidation as the Nato boundaries expanded and expanded and came closer and closer to the Russian borders. With maybe 200,000 dead and wounded in the war in Ukraine and billions and billions of dollars in damage and destruction, does any western leader look back to those heady days after the fall of the Soviet Union and regret that decision to declare the open-door policy. Surely they must do. But it's all too late.
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