Tuesday 27 December 2022

Could there be "peace" in Ukraine next year?

There will never be a status quo ante-bellum. Russia invaded Ukraine ten months ago and began destroying the country. So it would be impossible to reach a peace settlement and everyone just gets on with their lives. Putin has made sure of that. And yet the Ukrainian foreign minister has talked of a possible peace summit in February. With whom and under what preconditions? Well one of the peconditions he sets out is: Moscow must not be allowed to take part in the summit unless there is agreement that Russia faces war crimes. So if there is a summit it won't involve Russia because Putin will never agree to preconditions that satisfy the Ukrainians. The only precondition he would seek would be an agreement that he keeps the whole of the Donbas region of Ukraine which he can then turn into part of the Russian motherland. So I'm not sure what is meant by a peace summit. A war summit, yes, but a peace summit? I see absolutely no hope of a peace settlement next year or any year come to that. Unless Putin is overthrown (never going to happen) or something else dramatic occurs in Russia to force Putin to stop the war (can't think of anything) the Russian autocrat will order his military to carry on fighting and bombing and killing and when troop numbers dwindle through high casualty rates he will just mobilise more cannon-fodder soldiers to take their places. So, war without end in Putin's view unless or until Ukraine says enough is enough or the Western alliance collapses and reneges on the promises to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. So the chances of any peace settlement in 2023 or at least an end to the bombing and fighting seem remote. This is depressing news for Ukraine and for all of us. When the Covid pandemic erupted everyone dreamed of the day when it would all be over. It didn't come in 2020 or 2021 but sort of came in 2022, allthough the resurgence of Covid in China is seriously worrying. In 2022 Putin thought the war in Ukraine would all be over quickly. Now he must be resigned to the war continuing throughout 2023, but he doesn't care. So 12 more months of war and then perhaps another 12 months after that? I fear so. Predictions for next year are therefore bleak. I wish I could be more optimistic.

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