Monday, 5 December 2022

What does Putin want from the winter fighting?

Vladimir Putin must surely have given up any thought of winning the war in Ukraine. So what does he want from the winter months ahead? I suspect he will put much more effort into pursuing his political war with the US and Europe than with trying to make military advances against the Ukrainian army. There will be lots of talk of possible peace deals and Putin will try to give the impression that he is genuinely interested in settling the whole matter for the good of everyone. But as the Kremlin has already made clear there will be no peace deal unless Putin is given assurance that he can and will keep all the territory his troops have won in the Donbas region. And of course that is out of the question, not just in Ukraine's eyes but in the eyes of the whole of Nato. Putin cannot be rewarded for invading Ukraine. But I anticipate that Putin will find a form of words that some in the alliance might find more acceptable, especially those who are even now beginning to think that this war cannot go on for much longer because of the consequences for their economies. Macron and Scholz are already half way down this path. So watch out for some charm offensive from Putin.

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