Monday 10 October 2022

Putin did what I predicted

Putin ordered a mass missile retaliation against Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine, just as I predicted yesterday. It wasn't a difficult prediction. Putin has been coming under fire from the most extreme elements in Russia to be more aggressive against Ukraine and also to use nuclear weapons. The attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge linking Russia to Crimea gave him the opportunity to appease his strongest critics who appear to want Ukraine bombed back to the Stone Age. Putin will feel he has got his critics back on side. This is dangerous for Ukraine and for the West. While the attack on the Kerch Bridge was an amazing spectacular, it has given Putin added momentum to be even more vicious and violent against the Kyiv government. I doubt he will stop now. He will be so determined to keep Crimea that any further attacks by Ukraine on the Kerch Bridge or Crimea itself are likely to be met with similar attacks on Ukrainian cities. I still think it unlikely Putin will turn to tactical nuclear weapons but he will keep threatening to use them to try and deter Ukraine from becoming too ambitious. The attack on the Kerch Bridge was a turning point. But I'm afraid to say it has given Putin even more of an appetite to punish and overwhelm Ukraine.

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