Monday 3 October 2022

Can't imagine Putin will risk going nuclear

The Kremlin I'm sure is in turmoil, wondering what to do next to stall the Ukrainian military storming into the provinces in eastern Ukraine which Putin thinks he has annexed. There are all kinds of reports today of a nuclear-weapons train emerging from its hangar onto tracks and a submarine with a nuclear-capable super torpedo on board heading for the Arctic, all intended to scare the bejesus out of Nato and Washington. But this is Putin flapping around not knowing what to do and just turning to the one set of weapons which make him feel macho. Everything else has failed: his MiG and Su fighter jets, his tanks, armoured vehicles, warships, artillery and, above all, his army. So all he has left are his nukes, big ones, enormous ones and small ones. That's what he is doing right now, showing off the big stuff to prove to the world that he can still win his battle with the West. But I doubt Nato leaders are that impressed. Ok, several have warned that Putin might not be bluffing, but for heaven's sake if he really is contemplating firing off a nuke, then he must know he is finished. One way or another he will be severely punished and Russia will be more isolated from the rest of the world than North Korea. Any sensible Russian left in Russia will leave. Everything Putin has been accumulating for his pensioner days - villas, super yachts, fat bank accounts in Geneva - will be seized. Putin cannot want that. So he is now facing the biggest decision of his life: destroy everything or give up his war in Ukraine. For the first time since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 I am beginning to think that if he doesn't end the fighting, others in the Kremlin will step in. Let's hope it's soon.

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