Monday, 31 October 2022

The war in Ukraine is never going to be resolved

There are only three things I can say for certain about Putin's war in Ukraine. Russia is never going to win to Putin's satisfaction, Ukraine is never going to win to Zelensky's and his western backers'satisfaction and Europe will continue to suffer the wider consequences. It could be a forever war, the thing that both Donald Trump and Joe Biden vowed never again to get involved in. I think it is inconceivable that Putin will suddenly decide to call the whole thing off. His future depends on achieving something out of his invasion of Russia's neighbour. So far he has lost more than 60,000 or 70,000 troops, countless tanks, armoured vehicles, helicopters, aircraft and several ships, and used up a huge percentage of Russia's ballistic and cruise missiles. Any other country might have decided, enough is enough, and go hard for a deal. But Putin doesn't want a deal because he didn't invade Ukraine in order to reach some sort of compromise. And Ukraine doesn't want a deal because it would inevitably mean giving up some sovereign territory and after more than seven months of courageous fighting and appalling sacrifices, Zelensky won't want to give an inch to the Kremlin autocrat. So the conclusion is, the war will go on for ever and ever, and when Ukraine achieves some success, like the drone and unmanned ship attacks on Sevastopol naval base (it's pretty clear it was after all the Ukrainians who did this and not Russian saboteurs) then Putin takes revenge by hammering Ukraine's cities with missile attacks - and suspending all grain shipments. Who suffered the most: Russia with a few burning buildings and a damaged ship or two, or Ukraine with the destruction of more homes and power stations and the loss of electricity and gas across the country, and the axing of the one and only deal Zelensky and Putin have agreed to which was of huge benefit not just to Ukraine but to the starving millions in Africa. One has to ask whether the drone attacks on the naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea were really worth it?

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