Sunday 2 October 2022

US will not abandon Ukraine whatever Putin does next

Everyone now seems to be talking about the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, is the latest top American official to declare that he sees this as a possibility. But in a TV interview he went on to repeat what Joe Biden has said on a number of occasions, that the US will continue to support Ukraine "for as long as it takes". But for as long as what takes? Victory for Ukraine over Russia? The total defeat of Russia? The liberation of all Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea? Or did Austin just mean that for as long as the war is going on in Ukraine the US will carry on supplying weapons without actually specifying the end game? There are a lot of imponderables here? What is Biden's objective in Ukraine and does it include making sure Russia can never again repeat an invasion of a neighbouring country? Remember, Austin said that several months ago and got ticked off by Biden. But surely that's what the White House would like? In which case the longer the war goes on the better the chance that everything Putin throws into Ukraine in terms of manpower and weapons will be destroyed, captured or surrendered. And that would pose a huge headache for Putin in the next ten years because he would no longer have a functioning army. Would that be a good outcome or a dangerous outcome. It would surely make it more likely that Putin WOULD turn to weapons of mass destrction to get his revenge and stay in power. So no one really knows what Biden, Austin and others really mean when they say the US and Nato will last the course, arming Ukraine "for as long as it takes". Still, as a declaration it should certainly scare Putin, or at least make him ponder his next move.

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