Sunday 9 October 2022

What will Putin do now?

Putin is to convene his national security council tomorrow and high on the agenda will be the partial destruction of the Kerch Bridge by a huge explosion. Putin has called it an act of terrorism by Ukraine, so I expect he has already decided what to do by way of retaliation. He may listen to the views of the national security council but he wwill have made up his mind. As for accusing Ukraine of an act of terrorism, what are the missile attacks on housing blocks if not terrorism? The whole invasion of Ukraine is a monstrous act of terrorism. But Putin won't see it that way of course. He will justify it in his mind as a necessary measure in his special operation. He will also no doubt justify whatever retaliation he has decided on for the explosion on Kerch Bridge as an appropriate response. No one knows what he will do, not even his advisers because they know by now that their president does what he wants when he wants. I fear that he will take revenge on the capital, Kyiv, because it symbolises for him the first major failure in his war plan. He was sure he could take Kyiv in days and gave little thought to Volodymyr Zelensky. He never imagined for a moment that Zelensky would become a great war leader and that Ukraine would fight so hard. Zelensky and his armed forces stand in the way of victory, and the Kerch Bridge attack is the latest humiliating blow to Putin's reputation and legacy. So I definitely fear for the Ukrainian capital. I hope I'm wrong.

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