Wednesday 16 March 2022

Could Putin turn in desperation to tactical nukes?

I doubt Vladimir Putin is going to settle for a long drawn-out war in Ukraine, draining Russia's dwindling resources and provoking the wrath of angry mothers and wives of those killed in battle. The longer it goes on the more weapons will arrive from the West for the Ukrainian army and the greater the resistance. A vicious circle for the man in the Kremlin. So could Putin remind his generals that Russia's military doctrine allows for, even authorises, the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Putin some time ago ordered Russia's nuclear forces to be on higher alert but that was as a warning signal to Nato to steer clear of involvement in his war. It was intended to be a reminder to the western alliance and mainly to the US that he was the leader of a nuclear-weapons state and that he could push the button to annihilate the planet if he so wished. The US took notice but decided not to do likewise for fear of escalating the already dangerous tension. Now we're talking about battlefield nukes, in other words, short-range weapons with an explosive yield probably about a tenth of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But devastating nevertheless, guaranteeing thousands of deaths and unbelievable blast effect on buildings. The use of such weapons would be such a shock to the whole world that not only would it bring the brave Ukrainian resstance to an end but it would present President Biden, as the leader of Nato, with the most cataclysmic decision since President Truman's order to hit Japan with two nuclear bombs in August 1945. Putin would make the calculation that even in such dire circumstances, Biden would not rush into the Third World War with multiple nuclear strikes against Moscow but would opt for lower-down-the-scale military retaliation. Anything but nuclear. Putin, I'm thinking, would feel he had got away with it and with the world stunned into shocked bewilderment he would force Kyiv to surrender and wrap up his invasion strategy as quickly as possible. It's a scenario that we all believed was totally out of the question but, I fear, no longer.

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