Putin is going for Nato

The worst is yet to come. After 17 days of war in which the Russian forces stumbled and failed to complete the strategic objectives outlined by their Kremlin bosses, Vladimir Putin’s invasion troops are turning to a different scale of brutality. Despite predictions of an early shock-and-awe advance to Kyiv, similar to the US armoured drive to Baghdad in the 2003 Iraq war (achieved incidentally in exactly 17 days), the Russians left Kyiv marginally untouched while they aimed their main focus elsewhere. It is possible, seeing it from a purely Russian military viewpoint, to imagine that the attacks on the cities of Kharkiv, Mariupol, Mykolaiv and Kherson were all partly aimed at terrorising the citizens of Kyiv into submission before their troops, tanks and long-range artillery arrived at the capital. However, in the process, the Russian military has demonstrated its weaknesses – and Ukraine’s strengths. Logistic back-up has always been the Russian army’s Achilles heel. Add to that the involvement of conscripts who appear ignorant of Putin’s war objectives and the failure to win air superiority, the dismal performance of Russia’s supposedly top-tier battalion tactical groups, designed to bring mass combat power into a conflict zone, is there for all to see. So tactically and strategically the Russian armed forces have shown, at least to ever-watching US military chiefs, that they are not on an equal footing with America’s combat capabilities. This is why the Russian invaders are resorting to increasingly ferocious warfare tactics that do not take into account what Nato refers to as collateral damage: the killing of civilians and the destruction of private property. This is part of Russia’s military doctrine, and the brutal siege tactics used against other Ukrainian cities over the last 17 days will now be brought to bear on an even greater scale on the capital. The Russians have self-propelled artillery systems with ranges of up to 30 miles, as well as Iskander ballistic missile launchers within easy reach of Kyiv. If there is a delay in what is expected to be a relentless assault on the capital it will only be because of orders from commanders to wait until fuel and food supplies are in position. The Russian military will use the offer of ceasefires, not as a gesture of peace or humanitarian concern, but as a way of regrouping for the siege of Kyiv. Based on their failure to secure air superiority so far -in Nato doctrine always a priority war objective - there is no reason to suppose that Russian fighter aircraft will achieve this in the next few weeks. As a consequence, Nato’s weapons-supply convoys crossing from Poland and elsewhere into western Ukraine are bound to be subjected to ballistic-missile and aerial bombing. The Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian military training base at Yavoriv, near the border with Poland. Is a harbinger of what is to come. Russia’s military tactics have been undermined from the first day because of the anti-tank and anti-air weapons supplied by the US and 14 other countries. Putin now seems bent on retaliation against Nato.