Wednesday 30 March 2022

No one's going to topple Putin

Putin is here to stay. He didn't fight his way up the KGB and power ladder to give it all up because of a disastrous war. And in any event he won't be looking at his invasion of Ukraine as a disaster. He will be looking at it as a major success because he sent nearly 200,000 troops into Ukraine, destroyed almost a whole city - Mariupol - smashed into hospitals, schools, apartment blocks, killed thousands of civilians and bombarded the hell out of a dozen towns and the only thing Nato did was to impose sanctions and arm the Kyiv government with anti-tank and anti-air missiles. In fact Putin scored a victory even before Russia invaded because Biden said he would never send US troops to Ukraine whatever Moscow did. So, thank you Biden. that sounds like carte blanche to bomb away. So, yes, I think Putin will be pretty pleased so far, never mind that every western newspaper and TV station and every Pentagon briefer have been laughing at Russia's cackhanded invasion strategy and highlighting the huge Russian casualties and the abject failure to send enough fuel, food and logistical back-up to keep his invasion force moving. Putin will be angry, certainly, at his generals's incompetence. But he still knows Biden and his Nato partners are scared stiff at what he might do next and tremble at the thought of doing or saying anything which might lead to World War Three, and President Zelensky is pleading for a ceasefire and offering major concesssions, including neutrality. Putin will enjoy all that. Meanwhile, he's going to grab the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, or at least have a go at doing so, and will then have control over the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world. If he achieves that he will be able to add to his blackmailing potential, particularly with Europe. If he's lucky it might just undermine the unity of the trans-Atlantic alliance which right now looks pretty solid. Putin still holds many trump (not Trump) cards. Ukraine and the western world, take note and be warned.

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