Putin's next moves could lead to clashes with Nato

The first US Army Abrams battle tanks entered Baghdad 17 days after the American-led invasion of Iraq began on March 19, 2003. Leaving the British 1st Armoured Division to seize and occupy the southern city of Basra, American soldiers and Marines in armoured personnel carriers and tanks powered their way to the capital, bypassing other potential urban targets to reach the seat of power to topple Saddam Hussein. President Putin will have studied the rapid advance of America’s fighting troops, led by the US 3rd Infantry Division, when assessing the options for invading Ukraine. However, Kyiv, the capital and beating heart of Ukraine’s resistance, has yet to feel the full combat power of the Russian invading forces. What will be Putin’s next moves on the battlefield? *Kyiv has to remain his priority target. Apart from indiscriminate shelling and sabotage missions by Spetsnaz special forces in the capital , the bulk of the Russian troops so far have been distracted, and effectively opposed, while launching multiple strike missions in other parts of the country. This has included seizing the towns of Berdyansk and Enerhodar in the southeast, and attacking the Black Sea port of Kherson, Kharkiv in the northeast, Mykolaiv in the south and Mariupol on the north coast of the Sea of Azov. With Russian air power having failed so far to make a significant impact in the war, partly through the shooting down of numerous fighter jets and helicopters, it’s likely Putin’s generals will turn to long-range artillery bombardment to try and defeat the willpower of the capital’s defenders. The Russian military has a long history of resorting to artillery to break down resistance in besieged cities. If this is to be the next phase of the war, Kyiv will be subjected to intensive shelling. The Russian military has at its disposal a massed array of howitzers which include the Pion self-propelled 203mm artillery piece with a range of around 30 miles. In addition, the Ukrainian general staff has claimed the Russians are setting up a forward base for attack helicopters near Ivankiv, about 45 miles northwest of Kyiv. This suggests preparations for the expected multiple-point assault on the capital are continuing, albeit slowly at present. *Odessa, the biggest port on the Black Sea, also has to be on Putin’s priority list. Thousands of Russian naval infantry troops are already on board amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea and appear to be poised to launch an operation on Odessa, perhaps this week. Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade were also spotted loading onto large amphibious ships on the west coast of the Crimean peninsula over the weekend. *Seizing Ukraine’s power plants: Russian forces have been seen advancing north towards the Kaniv hydro-electric power plant which is about 100 miles south of Kyiv, and key to providing energy supplies to the region. Putin has already shown that he wants his troops to gain control of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Russian forces last week took over Ukraine’s largest nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia in the south. *The possible targeting of Nato’s arms supply line into Ukraine from Poland. This would be a high-risk move because of the potential for clashes between Russian and Nato fighter jets which are operating close to the Ukrainian border. However, Putin’s war plans have been severely undermined by the flow of Nato anti-tank and anti-air shoulder-launched missile systems that have arrived in transport convoys from Poland and other alliance countries bordering Ukraine. The longer the war goes on the better armed will be the Ukrainian military who have already demonstrated the effectiveness of the easy-to-use and deadly accurate weapon systems. Putin has said the sanctions imposed by the West are tantamount to a declaration of war against Russia. The flow of arms, and the supply of real-time intelligence provided by US spy satellites and surveillance aircraft, manned and unmanned, operating in the region, may also be viewed by the Russian leader as acts of war. If Russian troops begin large-scale operations in western Ukraine which borders four Nato countries – Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania – the risk of aerial confrontation will increase significantly. So far the convoys of weapons have been crossing the border with impunity. US European Command under General Tod Wolters who is also Nato’s supreme allied commander, is masterminding the shipments of arms from 14 countries. A “deconfliction channel”, consisting basically of an open phone line, exists between the US European Command headquarters in Stuttgart and the Russian military. A US official said the Russians know of its existence because they answered the phone when it rang.