Saturday 5 March 2022

How is the war in Ukraine going to end?

Judging by what Putin has been saying he has no intention of stopping the war in Ukraine until he has got total victory. Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, on the other hand, believes that there is a very good chance Russia will be defeated by the doughty Ukrainians. Probably neither of these two projections will be achievable. There is no such thing as total victory, unless Putin seriously sets about destroying every city the way he destroyed Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, in 1999. And what would be the purpose of that? Ukraine would be a destroyed satellite state filled with surviving Ukrainians seeking forever revenge against their occupiers. Putin hopes that that the Ukrainian resistance will eventually fail and for the sake of people's lives and homes the Kyiv government will surrender to the will of the Russian army and stop fighting. As of now there seems to be a very small chance of that happening. So Putin's plan for a swift victory will be like America's dream of a rapid subjugation of Iraq in 2003, or, indeed, the vision of creating democracy and freedom for the Afghan people after the toppling of the Taliban in 2001. In Afghanistan it took 20 years for the US and its allied partners to realise that victory against the Taliban was impossible and there was, simply, nothing more they could do. The dream became an absymal failure when the Taliban regained power in August 2021 and went back to their Medieval ways. In Iraq, the short-lived victory sporned a brutal insurgency war that went on and on and on and metamorphosed into an even more brutal battle with the Islamic state. Tens of thousands of civilians died in the long process. I predict there will be no swift victory for Putin in Ukraine. But will the Ukrainian resistance become so effective that the Russian army could be defeated and sent home, like the US-led coalition was in Afghanistan, and, indeed, like the Russian army was from the same country in the 1980s? The reality is that neither Putin nor Blinken will prove to be right. Russia will not win a military victory but neither will the Ukrainian forces defeat the Russians. It will turn into a bloodbath stalemate that will go on for months if not years. If that happens, it might just prove the end of Putin and his KGB cohorts. But how many people will die before that happens? Putin's legacy is and will always be soaked in blood, just like Stalin's, and Hitler's.

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