Thursday 31 March 2022

Can Putin really be ignorant of what's happening in Ukraine?

You and I and most of the rest of the world - and surely Vladimir Putin too - knows that the Russian war in Ukraine is going terribly for the Kremlin. How is it possible that Putin is so locked away in his Kremlin bunker that he hasn't a clue about all the stuff we have been reading about and watching on TV for the last five weeks. This is the 21st century. Putin has TV sets everywhere, he has a mobile, he has a radio or two, he has internet, he can Google, he can watch Fox News, CNN, the BBC. Basically he can do what we all can do. So surely he knows everything. We know most stuff, so he must know a lot more. Yet the US and UK intelligence services insist that Putin is being deprived of all the latest info from the front by his military advisers because they are scared to tell him, and he has no idea that Russian conscripts are deserting every day in Ukraine, that he has lost so many tanks he will soon have to get a lot more out of storage, and that his own troops have been shooting down Russian jet fighters in error. Really? Really? Now I know that Iraqi advisers to Saddam Hussein reportedly never told the Iraqi dictator that he didn't have any weapons of mass destruction anymore - actually I don't believe that either - but if Putin asks Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, whether everything is going according to plan, will he say, yes, boss, it's all tickety-boo. OK, Shoigu might not dot all the i's and cross all the t's but surely he's not going to tell a barefaced lie to his commander-in-chief? Putin absolutely must know because five weeks have gone by and there is no victory parade in Kyiv. He has to know that his "special military operation" has gone haywire. I don't know why the US and UK spooks have decided to tell the world that they believe Putin is being kept out of the loop, it must be based on something very classified, but I just don't believe Putin is walking around the Kremlin rubbing his hands in glee at the brilliant achievements of his invasion force. He knows. He knows! That's why he is so dangerous because he hates losing and if he feels everything is going wrong he might do something cataclysmic for the whole world. But as I wrote yesterday he doesn't care about anything other than his personal power and his ability to wield power without opposition far into the future. He will know what the West's spook chiefs have been saying and he will laugh. He has turned the world upside down and he will think that in itself is a huge achievement. So it doesn't matter what western intelligence services say. He knows his own truth and that's fine for him.

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