Thursday 5 November 2020

Biden inches forward but Trump's lawyers lurk

Donald Trump appears to be running out of time and options, apart from resorting to the courts. Looking at the map you can see why the US is so divided politically. It's all red in the heartland and blue round the edges east and west. But the numbers for Biden look to be beyond Trump. If Biden does snatch the prize from the incumbent to become the 46th president he will face a near-impossible task of uniting the country and persuading the Senate to support him. Mitch McConnell will continue to reign supreme as the Republican leader of the Senate and many of the Republicans who had been facing the chop actually survived, and easily, like Lindsey Graham. It's a paradox. Had Trump been leading the field, stretching the gap between him and Biden, you would have expected to see an increasing Republican majority in the Senate and a narrowing of the margin in the House of Representatives, even possibly taking control. Yet here we have Biden leading the field, albeit not substantially, and the Republicans will remain in charge of the Senate and the Democrats have performed pretty poorly in the House although still retaining control. It doesn't make sense. Perhaps the Democrat candidates were just not good enough even for Democrat voters. It's the only answer. If Biden wins Pennsylvania - and we might know by the end of today - the presidency will be his. Unless of course the figures are very close in which case there could be a recount or it will be the courts who decide. Trump has remained on 214 electoral college votes for 24 hours, while Biden has edged forward to 253. So unless Trump suddenly sees the last few states swinging in his favour, he is going to lose. "I don't like losing", he said yesterday. Well, get used to it, Mr President. You have another 75 days left of your presidency. Basically Trump has to win Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina to beat Biden. He could do it but according to all the counting estimates so far, Biden is ahead in two of the states. It could all be over by the end of the day, bar the court action which could drag it on to next week. After such a tumultuous four years it seems like tempting fate to say this but: Trump will go down in history as a one-term president. He ain't going to like that. Not one bit.

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