Trump wants all troops out of Afghanistan before he leaves

SIXTY-EIGHT DAYS TO GO: From the way the Pentagon is being reshaped with Trumpite loyalists being appointed, it's pretty clear what the president is up to. He wants to get all American troops out of Afghanistan before he leaves office on January 20. If he does leave by January 20 of course. It's one of the legacy achievements I am convinced he is determined to have placed in concrete and he's running out of time. So out goes Mark Esper, the defence secretary he had begun to dislike quite a lot, in goes an outsider to do as his master orders, and most of the top civilian jobs are suddenly filled by other Trumpites. And to add spice to the Afghanistan all-out theory, Chris Miller, the new acting defence secretary, has bizarrely appointed someone as his main adviser who I assume was Trump's choice: Colonel Douglas Macgregor, retired but a very opinionated commentator for Fox News, especially on Afghanistan. He agrees with Trump that America's involvement should be brought swiftly to an end with not a single US soldier left. Although this is part of the deal signed with the Taliban, the withdrawal of the remaining 4,500 or so troops is supposed to be, as the military love saying, conditions-based. That means that if violence is still at a high level and the Taliban are still attacking Afghan security forces by the time the deal is supposed to be fully implemented next year then the US reserves the right to keep some forces in Afghanistan until stability is firm and settled. For the military that would mean keeping at least 2,500 special operations troops in situ to remind the Taliban of their commitment to the peace deal. I think Trump is more interested in honouring his pledge to get all US troops out than play a quid pro quo brinkmanship game with the Taliban. He probably thinks that if he gets all the troops out by Christmas, the Taliban might offer in return a total ceasefire. But if all US troops are pulled out it's far more likely that the Taliban will push on hard militarily to get maximum advantage before agreeing a political sharing deal with the Kabul government. So, this is what it's all about. The Pentagon changes are about Afghanistan, and if General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, tries to stop him from getting every soldier out by Christmas, Trump will just get him replaced. Watch this space.