Tuesday, 13 October 2020
Will Trump supporters come out in force to vote?
The more the polls show Joe Biden is well ahead of Donald Trump, the more likely it is that any American who still has a thing about Trump will definitely make the effort to go out and vote. I guess the same could be said about Biden voters, except that if they read the polls and think he's going to win easily they might not bother to vote. Personally I can't understand why people eligible to vote don't do it automatically. I fail to comprehend the I-can't-be-bothered attitude. Especially in the US right now. If you love Trump, go vote for him, if you hate Trump, go vote for Biden. It's as simple as that. But both Republicans and Democrats are worried about people voting. Numbers will be crucial, obviously. Judging by the number of people who have voted already, the signs are pretty good that it will be a high turnout, perhaps higher than ever. Whether that's good news for Trump or good news for Biden is impossible to tell. But my gut feeling is that the bigger the turnout the better chance Biden has of winning because people who might not bother to vote might just do so this time in order to remove the incumbent president even if they don't much like Biden. What the Biden camp can't do is sleepwalk to November 3, thinking they have it all wrapped up. Nothing is wrapped up until it's wrapped up. Even with less than three weeks to go anything could happen which might change the mood and sway the voters. Some commentators are saying that if Trump manages to sign a dramatic extension to the New Start Treaty with the Russians, limiting nuclear weapons' arsenals, this might make the difference. It would show Trump on the world stage snatching a big moment to prove he can do deals. But I doubt it. Signing a nuclear-restraining deal with Putin isn't going to cut the mustard with wavering voters, especially when Trump made so much about needing to bring in China for the next Start negotiations. Beijing has said no. Also any deal between Trump and Putin so close to the election might just be seen by the cynics as a Moscow rabbit-out-of-the-hat ploy to get Trump reelected. I doubt American voters will fall for it. Bringing all US troops home from Afghanistan by Christmas is another possible coup for Trump. Buut again, that won't wash with the voters. It's obvious the military top dogs don't want that and will fight against it. The only ones who do want it, apart from Trump, are the Taliban who are grinning like Kabul cats at the thought of having every American soldier back in the US in the next ten weeks or so. Could there be a breakthrough with North Korea? Afraid not, Mr President. Kim Jong-un's show-off display with his mighty new intercontinental ballistic missile demonstrated that he is not in the mood to do Trump any favours. So, it's down to the voters and how many bother to vote.
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