Sunday 18 October 2020

How could Trump win?

Let us start off with a question: Donald Trump will lose to Joe Biden unless....?? Unless what? First of all here are the things that will ensure Trump loses on November 3: he is way behind in almost every poll and in almost every battleground state. The people he could rely on in the 2016 election, such as white middle class women (for reasons I have never understood) are now changing their mind big time. White women appear to have had enough of Trump, probably because of his abrasive manner, his insults to all and sundry who don't like him and his various verbal attacks on individual female politicians. Trump has now turned to pleading with women to like him. That will turn them off more I suspect. Then there's the pandemic and the way he has handled it. Millions of American families will have been affected by the virus in one way or another, and the belief that Trump either hasn't really cared or has just mishandled the fightback won't have gone down well with the mums. And of course, the economy. It's not Trump's fault, he did take action to keep the economy from spiralling into recession and depression. But now after seven months of financial support and increasing the national debt to more than $3 trillion, Trumps seems to have gone off the boil. He wants to delay the next round of financial help until after the election. All of this is playing badly for the president and even he is now admitting that he could lose the election and talks of perhaps having to leave the country. I expect that was all about getting a sympathy vote but I doubt there's much sympathy around right now. So, here it is: what could happen in the next two weeks to change all this negativity and send Trump back into the White House for another four years. Number one, a disastrous event for Biden, perhaps a really really poor performance at the next TV debate, if it goes ahead (possible). Number two, a miracle happens with the economy and suddenly everything looks rosy (pretty unlikely). Number three, a fantastic and credible vaccine is unveiled and Americans by the million queue up for their jabs (remote possibility). Number four, Trump becomes a different person, promising to be loving and caring and to devote his life to his fellow Americans and to fight all kinds of racism and inequality and to ban white supremacy militia and prohibit the purchase of assault rifles (yeah, right). Number five, Trump makes public all of his tax returns (never going to happen). Number six, Biden falls ill with coronavirus and Kamala Harris has to spend the next two weeks in self-isolation (can't be discounted). Number seven, a regional crisis erupts and Trump takes such decisive action that it goes away on or just before election day (unlikely and not necessarily a boost for Trump). If none of these things happen, Trump is going to lose on November 3.

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