Thursday 29 October 2020

The US election result WILL be delayed

I think I can safely predict that we will not be waking up on November 4 knowing who has won the US presidential election. There are going to be late late results coming in and now the US Supreme Court has ruled that absentee ballot votes received after election day in Pennsylvania and North Carolina will be allowed. That's probably good news for Joe Biden. More Supreme Court decisions to follow no doubt and by then the new Trump-nominated justice Amy Coney Barrett will play her part in making decisions. She wasn't involved in the the Pennsylvania and North Carolina rulings even though she is now a fully fledged member of the highest court in the land. Whether there are more late voting decisions or not, this election is going to lead to a legal and political battle never seen before. If it's going to be much closer than most pollsters are predicting - as I suggested yesterday - then a can of worms will be opened. It could take weeks or months for a final decision. This will be bad for America and bad for every economy around the world. The markets desperately need stability and a more predictable future. Right now if virus infections suddenly rise, the stock markets fall. If it looks as if the election result is going to remain in a state of confusion and uncertainty for any period, the markets will fall further. What we all need are the following: a vaccine as quickly as possible that will prove fabulously effective, a dramatic drop in virus cases, particularly virus deaths, a president of the United States chosen and confirmed lawfully, democratically and beyond question, and (for us Brits) a last-minute trade agreement with the European Union that offers the best possible compromise solution for both the UK and the EU. Unfortunately, it's possible that none of these things will actually happen.

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