Sunday, 25 October 2020

A lot of people are now panicking in the US

In the final stretch of the US presidential election people are beginning to make calculations and as a result many will be panicking whoever wins the election. If Biden wins, will he slam the rich, very rich and super rich with massive tax hikes, if Trump wins will it mean another four years of helter-skelter politics and decision-making that make life so unpredictable for businesses and for every other government on the planet? In the UK these calculations are pretty crucial. If there is to be a no-trade-deal Brexit, a trade arrangement with the US is going to be mightily important, and Trump is more likely to sign one than Biden. So much panicking going on. But in the US itself, voters have decided to take the matter into their own hands by turning out in massive numbers to vote early. The turnout figures are almost unprecedented. Still nine days to go and the numbers who have already voted are approaching 60 million. Some reports have claimed voters are prepared to wait in the queue for up to ten hours to cast their vote. If the final turnout is anything more than 60 per cent it could make a huge difference who wins on November 3. Let's look at the possible reasons for this. When one side is far ahead of the rival in the polls, there is always a danger that the wining-side voters might not bother to vote because they will say to themselves, "well he's going to win anyway, what's the point." Then there's the other argument. The predicted winner is so far ahead in the polls that the perceived losing-side voters will realise they have to do their bit for their man and rush out to vote to prove the pollsters are wrong. Based on no inside knowledge I believe there is probably a third explanation this time round. And that is, that despite the encouraging polls, Democratic voters know they mustn't be complacent and that they have an historic opportunity to kick out from the White House one of the most controversial presidents they have ever had. And the Republican voters are also aware of their historic obligations and know that if they are to prevent "Sleepy Joe" from ousting their man they have to vote in vast numbers to keep the door closed to Biden and his damned socialists. If I'm right, and both Democrats and Republicans are voting in numbers not seen before, or at least not for more than 100 years, then the election is going to be mighty close. That's my prediction. It's going to be very very very close. It could be Trump. It could be Biden. No wonder people are panicking.

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